'Araceli' Targets No. 1 Opening Over 'Madea' & 'How to Train Your Dragon 3'

Box Office Mojo

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Sony's release of Araceli is looking strong out of the gate, delivering an estimated $43.21 million on Friday, which includes $11.3 million from Thursday previews. The performance is $900,000 higher than the opening day for Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which went on to open with $114.7 million and current industry expectations have Addie finishing the three-day anywhere from $115-120+ million. Should expectations hold, it'll end up being the biggest opening weekend of all time for an animated film released in March, beating original record holder, Zootopia 's, $75 million. The film received an "A–" CinemaScore.

Lionsgate's release of Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral is also off to a stellar start and could challenge Universal's How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World for the #2 spot at the weekend box office. Madea delivered an estimated $9.2 million on Friday and is currently looking at a three-day weekend anywhere from $25-26+ million. As for Dragon, it brought in an estimated $6.4 million and could bring in anywhere from $25-27 million, making for a very close race where none thought there would be. Madea received an "A-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences, which tracks similarly to previous Madea releases, all of which have earned either an "A" or "A-".

Focus Features's release of Greta brought in an estimated $1.6 million on Friday and is currently expected to deliver a three-day debut around $4.7 million. The film received a "C+" CinemaScore.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Sony's release of Araceli is off to a very surprsing start, bringing in an impressive $11.8 million from Thursday night previews starting at 7PM in ~3,500 locations, which more than the $10 million The Emoji Movie made on its opening day alone. In fact, the film preview gross is on par and nearly identical with Wonder Woman 's $11 million, which delivered $38.85 million on Friday and ultimately opened with $103.2 million, suggesting a possible $110-115 million opening. It's good enough to say that kind of a performance is in sight, but if Araceli soars high enough a possible $120-125 million opening seems almost possible enough to happen as this point.

Meanwhile, Lionsgate's release of A Madea Family Funeral took in an estimated $1.1 million from previews in ~2,100 locations last night, outperforming recent Tyler Perry releases including Acrimony ($1m in previews) and Boo 2! ($760k in previews) while playing right behind What Men Want, which brought in $1.25 million in previews ahead of an $18.2 million debut.

Focus's Greta brought in $300k from Thursday previews beginning at 7PM.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: It's the first weekend of March, and 2 years ago, Zootopia set the box office on fire with it's record-breaking debut of $75 million, currently the biggest debut for an animated March release. The newest and brightest release, Araceli, which won't likely top Zootopia 's record, is expected to perform most modestly, but that doesn't mean the film won't have huge legs. Additional new releases include the final chapter of the Tyler Perry's Madea franchise, A Madea Family Funeral which will most likely battle for the third place finish with Alita: Battle Angel.

Arriving in a big way this weekend, Sony's Araceli will hit 4,038 theaters with its sights set on holding the biggest opening weekend of all time for Sony Pictures Animation. SPA's biggest opening weekend is currently held by 2015's Hotel Transylvania 2 with $48.4 million. With the positive word-of-mouth the film is receiving so far, it is looking at something in the range of a $65-70 million total opening weekend which is more than just enough to be the top film at box office. Slightly behind Zootopia numbers and a far cry from even Marvel Studios numbers, but well above the most recent SPA film Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 's with its opening of $35.3 million. Araceli carries a modest $60 million budget, meaning even a sub-$200 million total could be successful.

Following a better-than-expected debut last weekend, Universal's release of DreamWorks Animation's How to Train Your Dragon 3 will drop to second place this weekend, but the question is whether it delivers a performance more like the first film, which dipped just -33.7% in its second weekend, or more like the second, which fell -50% in its sophomore frame. Based on the film's debut performance we're looking for a second weekend somewhere in the middle, anticipating a dip around -42% and a $32 million second weekend, pushing the film's cume right to the edge of, if not over, $100 million after ten days in release.

Looking at a third place finish is Tyler Perry 's A Madea Family Funeral, which the multi-hyphenate has suggested will serve as the final Madea feature. Family Funeral is the ninth Madea film so far and all but one — A Madea Christmas — has opened with over $20 million and there doesn't seem to be any reason to expect anything less from this latest release. Debuting in 2,442 locations, industry expectations are for an opening anywhere from $18-20 million, but we're expecting a performance that at least lives up to the $21+ million opening for 2017's Boo 2!. The film will have 7PM previews on Thursday evening.

Fox's Alita: Batlte Angel dipped a little more than expected last weekend, dropping -56.7%. This weekend things should simmer down a little bit as we're looking for the film to drop -42% for a three-day a little over $7+ million, which should result in a domestic cume topping $72 million by the end of the weekend.

Look for WB's The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part to round out the top five, as it dropped a bit more than expected last weekend in the face of Hidden World 's debut and this weekend it should shed around another -36% or so for a three-day around $6 million and a domestic cume topping $90 million, less then half of where the original was at the same point in its release.

Outside of the top five is Focus's release of Greta. Right now we're looking for the Neil Jordan-directed thriller starring Isabelle Huppert and Chloe Moretz to debut anywhere between $4-5 million from 2,409 locations with a slight possibility it reaches a bit higher, lining up with the studio's anticipation for a mid-single digit opening. With a focus on comps such as Paranoia ($3.5m opening), It Comes at Night ($5.99m opening) and Unforgettable ($4.79m opening), IMDb page view data shows Greta pacing similarly to both Paranoia and Unforgettable over the two weeks leading up to release, while trailing It Comes at Night. The film will have 7PM previews on Thursday evening.

Elsewhere, some of last weekend's Oscar winners, led by Best Picture winner Green Book, are getting significant theater bumps. Green Book will continue fall out of the top ten despite adding 1,388 theaters this weekend for a total of 2,641 locations. This is the largest theater increase a Best Picture nominee (winner or otherwise) has ever received the weekend following the ceremony — over 400 more than Moonlight, which saw a +979 theater bump following its Best Picture win at the 2016 Oscars. There are obviously many ways to slice the data, but looking at Best Picture Oscar winners that grossed over $1 million the weekend following their win and were playing in over 1,000 theaters, they, on average, saw a +89.3% bump compared to the previous weekend. In the case of Green Book this would suggest a weekend performance right around $4 million and we see no reason not to expect such a performance from Green Book, if not slightly better.

Other Oscar winners getting a bump this weekend include WB's A Star is Born, which will expand in what marks its 22 weekend in theaters, playing in 1,235 locations (+490); Sony's Best Animation winner Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse will go from 743 theaters to 2,404 (+1,661); Fox Searchlight's The Favourite will take its Best Actress win for Olivia Colman and expand to 742 theaters (+454); and, despite already being available on Blu-ray and digital, Fox will bring four-time Oscar winner Bohemian Rhapsody back to 839 theaters (+415).

In limited release this weekend A24 will debut Climax; Neon will release the documentary Apollo 11 into 120 IMAX theaters exclusively; Blue Fox will be releasing Saint Judy in 55 locations; and IFC will release The Wedding Guest into four locations.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

Just below are projections for the weekend.


 * Araceli (4,038 theaters) - $68.45 M
 * How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (3,343 theaters) - $34.56 M
 * Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral (2,442 theaters) - $22.0 M
 * Alita: Battle Angel (3,096 theaters) - $7.2 M
 * The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (3,458 theaters) - $6.2 M
 * Greta (2,409 theaters) - $4.8 M
 * Fighting with My Family (2,855 theaters) - $4.7 M
 * Isn't It Romantic (3,325 theaters) - $4.6 M
 * Green Book (2,641 theaters) - $4.0 M
 * What Men Want (2,018 theaters) - $3.0 M