Long Range Box Office Forecast: 'Hyper' Hopes to Continue 20th Century Animation Box Office Streak; Can Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Reverse the Franchise’s Prior Big Screen Missteps?

Forecasts & Tracking • Shawn Robbins • March 03 2023

This week’s report takes an early look at the final two major studio releases of a busy March, as well as other forecast updates in the chart below.

Hyper

Disney & 20th Century Studios

March 31, 2023

PROS:


 * Last year was a historical and record breaking year for 20th Century Animation as they had 3 films that grossed $400M+ with this film hoping to continue their success streak
 * Initial social media impact are behind recent 20th Century Animation films but is 20% ahead of last year's Stella: An Angry Birds Movie which went on to gross $52M in it's opening weekend and 7% ahead of MGM's Hailey, which made $71M in its opening.
 * Being the first original 20th Century Animation film in seven years, it is interesting to see how it goes.
 * The most recent original film by the studio The Pixelators in 2016 opened to $70.2 million and a $248.2 million total cume.
 * Early trailer reactions were widely positive with scores comparable with Shang-Chi and Leaders of Academy: War of the L.O.E.V.

CONS:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
 * Opening at the tail end of a busy March, it is looking to have competition for the rest of it's run specifically The Super Mario Bros. Movie opening just five days later and Disney's own Return of the Tiny Men two weeks later.

Paramount

March 31, 2023

PROS:


 * Hasbro’s iconic role-playing game remains incredibly popular among fans across multiple generations.


 * A star-driven cast led by Chris Pine and Michelle Rodriguez, combined with a self-referential, comedic take on the property could help attract audiences outside the target fan base.


 * As the final live-action tentpole of spring before early May, the film has room to stretch its legs if audience reception is positive.


 * Early trailer reactions were widely positive with sentiment scores comparing favorably to the likes of the recent Jumanji films, a tone that marketing has continued to drum up.

CONS:


 * Unfortunately, there may still be some stigma attached to the brand outside of loyal fans — in large part because of 2000’s box office bomb, Dungeons & Dragons, which earned just $15.4 million domestically and $34 million worldwide after being hyped as a major franchise-starter.


 * This film opens at the tail-end of a month jam-packed with male-driven films, so its reliance upon a broader general audience is even more important — especially looking ahead to family competition from The Super Mario Bros. Movie opening just five days later.


 * Initial social media impact hasn’t gained the amount of momentum once expected, though the marketing department still has some time to amend that trend.Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar

(as of 3/3/23) ''Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.''

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

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