M. Night Shyamalan’s ‘Knock At The Cabin’ To Knock ‘Detective Carl 2’ Out Of No. 1 Spot – Box Office Preview

DEADLINE HOLLYWOOD January 31, 2023

After reigning over the box office for the past three weekends, United Artist Releasing/Orion's Detective Carl Returns will possibly cede No. 1 to Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan thriller Knock at the Cabin, which is set to do $15 million-$17 million at 3,600 theaters, per tracking sources.

Reviews haven’t hit yet on the feature take of Paul Tremblay’s national bestseller The Cabin at the End of the World, and we won’t know until we’re in the thick of the weekend with audience exits whether this pic over-indexes or not. The better the surprise in a Shyamalan ending, the better the box office. Helping Knock at the Cabin‘s ticket sales are Uni’s grab of PLF and Dolby auditoriums.

The movie follows a girl and her parents who are taken hostage during their vacation by armed strangers who demand that the family make a choice to avert the apocalypse. Dave Bautista, Jonathan Groff, Ben Aldridge, Nikki Amuka-Bird, Kristen Cui, Abby Quinn and Rupert Grint star.

The R-rated pic cost $20M before P&A, just a little bit higher than the cost of Shyamalan’s Old. Showtimes start at 5 p.m. Thursday, with a fairly split male-to-female turnout expected.

The Fifth Season production 80 for Brady, which Paramount acquired and financed for $28M, also has a shot of over-indexing, and with older female moviegoers. A $10M start looks promising, maybe even much more for this movie starring Jane Fonda, Lily Tomlin, Sally Field and Rita Moreno as friends who make it their lifelong mission to go to the Super Bowl and meet NFL superstar Tom Brady. The pic is booked at 3,800 locations. Previews start at 3 p.m. Thursday ahead of the bye week before Super Bowl LVII.

Last Saturday, Paramount kicked off a series of advance screenings of 80 for Brady with throwback pricing in celebration of the film’s exclusive theatrical release, beginning with a “Sneak Preview” screening that saw many sellouts, resulting in added auditoriums to accommodate demand. Today, participating theaters nationwide will host a “BFF Night Out” screening at 6 p.m. local time, followed by a “Ladies Night Out” screening Friday at 7 p.m. As part of the advance screenings, fans will get to see the movie’s music video “Gonna Be You” showcasing clips from the film and featuring Dolly Parton and Belinda Carlile, Gloria Estefan, Cyndi Lauper and Debbie Harry.

Detective Carl Returns also has a chance to upset the film and hit the double digits in Weekend 4, with non-MGM stating that after a $35.4M previous frame and a running total of $309.5M stateside, it could possibly make between $16 million to $20 million in its fourth weekend. On the all-time R-rated domestic list is Deadpool 2, currently at No.6 with $324.5M, where most resources state that the film has potential passing The Passion of the Christ ($370.7M) by the end of it's run because of it's great word of mouth.

Meanwhile, Avatar 2 also should hit double digits in Weekend 8, non-Disney box office sources say, after a $15.9M previous frame and a current running total of $622M stateside. The next movie the James Cameron-directed sequel will overtake on the all-time domestic list is The Avengers, which sits at No. 10 with $623.3M.