Long Range Box Office Forecast: Bullet Train, Easter Sunday, and Hailey

Forecasts & Tracking • Shawn Robbins • July 08 2022

This week’s report takes a first look at August and the final month of summer movie season with two additions to the tracking calendar.

Bullet Train

Sony Pictures

August 5, 2022

PROS:


 * Brad Pitt’s appeal at the box office has been on display again in recent years thanks to the success of Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and the positive impact his cameo had on this year’s The Lost City. He was also the primary draw for Ad Astra in 2019 despite middling receipts.


 * Late summer is largely barren as high-profile, major studio films go. There’s room for this ensemble action-comedy to turn into a crowd-pleaser, especially among male audiences. Bad Bunny could provide a notable boost to young male appeal.

CONS:


 * While Pitt is arguably one of the last remaining star draws of his generation, this is a test even by his standards as a film without a significant built-in audience.

Easter Sunday

Universal Pictures

August 5, 2022

PROS:


 * Comedian Jo Koy’s fan base and the potential to attract an under-served Filipino-American audience are strengths for this original comedy.


 * Summer has been light on traditional comedic films, and the runway into fall before Bros releases at the end of September is wide open.

CONS:


 * Counter-programming Bullet Train may ultimately be a strength, though it seems reasonable to expect some adult audiences will up for grabs by both films depending on reviews and word of mouth. Not being timed closer to Easter itself seems a bit odd, but ultimately could be a non-factor.

Hailey

United Artists Releasing

PROS:


 * The high school setting along with the female protagonist can skew female audiences to the theater.
 * It's social media presence is slightly ahead of Dusk and Dawn: A Zodical Night as well as early positive reactions from test screenings can be a factor into the opening weekend.
 * MGM Animation Studios original film's tend to have huge legs which can factor into it being the one of the only animated films along with Stella to be released in August and with no other animated competition until Princess Joanna and the Four Kingdoms in September can give the film more staying power.

CONS:


 * Other than Minions: The Rise of Gru, animated films released in the summer this year have struggled to meet expectations and ended up opening softer which could happen depending on word of mouth and reviews.
 * Being an original animated film rather than based on an IP, a lower opening can be expected.
 * MGM Animation doesn't have a big box office draw unlike 20th Century Animation and Disney, making this a test to see if animated originals can still be successful at box office.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar

(as of 7/7/22) ''All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.''

''Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.''