‘Detective Carl Returns’ To Kick Up Potential $200M Opening Around The Globe – Box Office Preview

Deadline Hollywood January 10, 2023 9:50 AM

Disney's Avatar: The Way of Water and Warner Bros. co-produced The Teenagers Movie ruled the charts for the beginning of 2023 with no intention of stopping but here comes Orion/Universal's legacy sequel Detective Carl Returns hoping to continue that momentum. The long-awaited sequel to the well-known R-rated flick from 33 years ago starring Jason Bateman and Jim Carrey is expected to rule the world with $75M-$90M domestic (including Monday’s holiday), and $175M-$200M worldwide.

Domestic wise, with it's current projections, it is expected to demolish Bad Boys For Lifes record of $73M over the four day MLK to have the biggest January release opening although American Snipers $107M four day opening (including $91M during 3 day) will remain the biggest MLK opening. Originally the film was scheduled to release last weekend but was pushed back to accomadate M3Gan's release and moved to MLK weekend after Sony's Kraven the Hunter was pushed back to October.

Looking back at previous R-rated openings, the biggest worldwide opening for an R-rated film belongs to Deadpool 2 (which ironically Returns also features Ryan Reynolds himself) with it's current record of $301M worldwide. Now will this record be demolished? I hardly doubt it, but a $200M opening is nothing to sneeze at as it'll end up by the end being one of the biggest R-rated films. MGM has had this film in development since 1991 with various script rewrites as well as the death of Harold Ramis almost cancelling the film entirely until he stated himself that "Even if I am to pass away, I would still want my Carl sequel to be made in honor of myself." For the month of January, Bad Boys for Life opened to $73M three years ago during its four day weekend and legged out to $206M before it's run was cut short due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ultimately, the film ended it's run at $426M worldwide, making it the highest grossing January release film.

Detective Carl Returns has remained on fire since it hit tracking three weeks ago with advance ticket sales out of the gate showing the movie to be Fandango’s best R-rated preseller in the first 24 hours, beating Fifty Shades of Grey and even Deadpool 2. Detective Carl Returns screened last night for critics and so far Rotten Tomatoes is showing a score of 92% certified fresh, over twenty points higher than the original’s RT rating. At 4,575 theaters, Detective Carl Returns is the widest R-rated release ever for the industry (beating the 4,570 count for New Line’s It: Chapter Two) and it’s the widest ever for any Metro Goldwyn Mayer release, besting MGM Animation Studios' Hailey at 4,440. That figure just speaks to the hunger and demand for an R-rated pic by exhibition bookers. Previews start at 7PM with some locations playing the double bill of the first film as well. Also, there were sneak preview screenings on December 27 of last year with the gross being undisclosed but MGM as well as various theater chains reporting that all their screenings were sold out.

The sequel is directed by DreamWorks Animation and Sausage Party director Conrad Vernon and follows the typical character along with his partner Josh Heinken cutting their plans for retirement short to solve the cases of various murders while Carl confronts his past.

Preview play starts offshore today, including in the UK where the film's closest comp there is Bad Boys for Life. Everywhere, Detective Carl Returns is coming three weeks after sequel to the biggest film of all time, Disney's Avatar: The Way of Water. With the lack of major releases and competition for the rest of the month until Ico II on February 10, the film will have plenty of room to grow. The film is expected to do large numbers in China following the original film's 4K release in China where the sequel got approved for release, however, its release will be next week as it is opening day-and-date everywhere. Bateman and Carrey’s globe-trotting is expected to pay dividends in the individual markets with the wide coverage of his visits. Also look for South East Asia to be muscular. In 1990, the top markets for the original film were Australia (despite it's R18 rating there), France, Russia, Germany, Korea, Brazil, Japan, Mexico and Taiwan.