Friday Box Office: 'Ico II' Plunges 71%, 'Detective Carl Returns' Nears 'Deadpool'

Scott Mendelson Forbes February 18, 2023

In holdover news, Sony's Ico II took a totally expected 71% drop from it's first Friday ($55.5 million), making $16 million as it dropped to second behind Ant Man 3. Now, this is better than the original film's -78% second Friday drop which could mean we are looking at a second place finish. The likely $65m second weekend will be the second-biggest second-weekend in February, behind Black Panther 's $110m second-weekend-gross in 2018 following a record $202m debut weekend.

Yes, the $275 million-budgeted epic fantasy sequel movie has already crossed $200m domestic and it has passed (or will pass today) the unadjusted-for-inflation totals of Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($202m), Thor: The Dark World ($206m), Venom ($212m), Solo ($214m), Ant-Man and the Wasp ($215m), Justice League ($229m), Doctor Strange ($232m). Presuming an over/under $65m (-52%) second weekend, the Finn Wolfhard/Millie Bobby Brown/Noah Schnapp/Daniel Craig/Dane DeHaan action fantasy will have earned $262m in ten days of domestic release, putting it above the likes of The Amazing Spider-Man ($262m) and Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($259m). At this point, it looks like Ico II will top $400m domestic after overexagerated screams of an underperformance after the lower than expected opening. Whether it finishes closer to Spider Man ($403m) or Avengers: Age of Ultro ($459m) will be decided over the next couple of weeks.

And it's continuing to do its thing overseas as well. I don't have updates beyond yesterday, but even with an expectedly steep drop in China (-75% for a $32.5 million second weekend and a likely $285m finish), the film has passed $600m worldwide as of yesterday and may crack $700m today and pass $800m global tomorrow. With the mixed reception of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and the next biggie being Creed III, we'll see if any other movies (especially any non-Disney titles) can get anywhere near wherever Ico II ends up. $1 billion-plus most definitely a guarantee, but ask me again tomorrow just to be safe.

Nonetheless, let's not weep too hard if it drops next weekend and ends up with Incredibles 2 numbers or even Captain America: Civil War numbers in the case of frontloading. This is already a big win for all invested parties whether or not it matches Top Gun: Maverick worldwide ($1.489 billion). The movie cost $275m and it is already breaking even after only a week in release, so it's already making money, while Wolfhard, Brown, and Wolfhard's chemistry based on their Stranger Things appearances will only give the film nice and better legs despite lower audience reception than the original. So, yes, Sony can open a non Spider-Man movie to blockbuster numbers and even own a consist franchise that doesn't have ties to Marvel.

The only other holdover release that made much noise was Detective Carl Returns. The Orion Pictures legacy sequel earned another $2.093m (-31%) on its sixth Friday for a likely $6.1m (-47%) weekend and $365m 38-day domestic cume. It looks like the $185m-budgeted adult toon should end its run with around $385m domestic, which would give The Passion of Christ ($370 million) the silver medal in R-rated domestic grosses, give or take the legs over the next few weeks. It should be close to $960m (if not over the hump) by tomorrow. Come as you may, this is probably an example of a good franchise revival after the critically acclaim Top Gun: Maverick bringing in audiences.