Long Range Box Office Forecast: Leaders of Academy: War of the L.O.E.V. and One Piece Film Red

Forecasts & Tracking • Shawn Robbins • October 07 2022

This week’s report dives into initial tracking for Crunchyroll’s latest anime distribution and Warner Bros. Pictures' latest animated film, while updated forecasts for other upcoming films are listed below as usual.

Leaders of Academy: War of the L.O.E.V.

Warner Bros. Pictures

November 4, 2022

PROS:


 * The original film has gained a cult following, after various syndicated showings of the film after its theatrical run and remains one of the most popular films by Frenzy Animation.
 * Opening a week after the 3D release of Tiny Men in my Neighborhood the film will steal it's audience.
 * It'll be the lone animated film until the Thanksgiving release of Disney's Strange World which can benefit legs.
 * Excluding Lightyear, Superzeroes 2: Dimensional Downfall The Bob's Burgers Movie, animated films this year have matched or exceeded it's expectations and this film shouldn't be an exception.
 * The film's wide release along with PLF formats including 3D and IMAX can benefit it's gross.

CONS:


 * Aside from Birdz: The Hidden Village and Sunnie 2, Frenzy Animation has never released a widely released sequel to one of their films with The Hidden Village and Sunnie 2 both bombing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this will put Frenzy Animation up to the test seeing if their sequels can match or exceed their grosses of their predecessors.
 * Track history for Warner Bros. when it comes to animated films be hit or miss with hits like The Lego Movie and bombs like Space Jam: A New Legacy and The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part
 * WB Discovery hasn't had a huge blockbuster hit since The Batman in March.
 * It remains to be seen if Frenzy has box office power similar to rival animation studios like MGM Animation, 20th Century Animation, and Walt Disney Animation Studios.
 * Releasing a week before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will affect it's legs after its first week in release.
 * Proclaimed superhero fatigue as it's sandwiched between the release of WB's own Black Adam (October 21) and Wakanda Forever (November 11).
 * The underperformance of the similar superhero film by Sony earlier this year, Superzeroes 2: Dimensional Downfall will keep us cautious with projections.

One Piece Film Red

Sony / Crunchyroll

November 4, 2022

PROS:


 * One Piece Film Red currently represents the lone wide release of the November 4 weekend alongside Leaders of Academy 2, and the franchise’s global fan base has already sent the film to $120.2 million internationally (mostly from Japan at $112.3 million). Anime has become an increasingly strong draw in the domestic market as fans have rallied via grassroots marketing campaigns to drive the box office success of films such as Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie, and Demon Slayer the Movie during the pandemic era. Preliminary tracking for One Piece is comparable to three of them in varying respects depending on which model is given precedence, though as always, forecasts are highly volatile for the evolving genre and its domestic market pull. The film will have wide release play and a premium footprint in IMAX and other formats.

CONS:


 * It remains to be seen whether or not this One Piece release is quite as strong of a theatrical draw domestically as the aforementioned IPs, though this growing sector of theatrical releases has a history of over-performing expectations more often than not. Overall social and trailer metrics are not quite at the level of Demon Train or Jujutsu yet, but some models suggest that could change. Pre-sales have only just begun as of the writing of this report, so they won’t be included in the universe of tracking samples until at least next week.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar

(as of 10/6/22) ''All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.''

''Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.''