Moviegoing Happens Over MLK: 'Detective Carl Returns' at Record $160M+ 4-day, ‘Avatar 2’ Now At $38M 4-day, ‘M3GAN’ Moves $21M+, ‘Puss In Boots 2‘ Hits $110M+, ’Otto’ Bright At $15M – Update

MONDAY AM: Walk-up ticket sales over MLK weekend just keep going up and up and up. Disney is reporting that 20th Century Studios/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water had a better Sunday than anticipated, $11.6M vs. what they thought would be $10.3M, which will get the fifth weekend of the James Cameron movie to $40M over 4-days. Wow. That’s bigger than the $24.6M that Spider-Man: No Way Home did a year ago over MLK. Pic’s running total is now $572.4M. Next tentpole for this sequel to beat on the all-time US/Canada box office list is Puppet Pals Forever with $589.2M and The Incredibles 2, which ranks 12th with a domestic total of $608.5M.

Orion/United Artist Releasing's Detective Carl Returns is also reportedly outdoing estimates with an overperforming $31M Sunday vs. what they thought would be a $30M Sunday will get the opening weekend to $160M+ over four days. Wow. That’s bigger than the $152.7M that Deadpool did during its own four day opening during President's Day in 2016 and miles more than MGM's own Hailey which made $81.9M within it's first four days. By the end of its first week (or less), film finance executives are saying that Detective Carl Returns will hit $550M global-plus (even if it’s front-loaded) and pass break-even in its theatrical cycle based off combined net production and global marketing costs of $295M.

After a near $6M Sunday, Universal/Atomic Monster/Blumhouse’s M3GAN goes to $18.2M over 3-days (-40%, which for a horror movie is fantastic), $21.7M over 4 and a running total of $60.2M. Uni’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish is also higher with a $5.3M Sunday, $14.4M 3-day (+6%), and 4-day of $19M with a running total of $112M. The movie is running 8% behind the original Puss in Boots’ total cume in its fourth weekend, that movie ending its US/Canada run at $149.2M.

Still waiting on Lionsgate, but their Gerard Butler action movie Plane looks like it was $300K higher than what was reported with $2.9M yesterday, which will get the movie to a $10.2M 3-day, $12M 4-day per AM estimates.

New Line’s House Party came in with a $1.1M Sunday, $4M Fri-Sun and $4.7M 4-day.

SUNDAY AM: After a snowstorm laden Christmas weekend caused a lot of concern for exhibition and studios, the MLK frame has provided a lot of hope at the box office, with all studios seeing an improved outlook on their estimates than they imagined. Results for the top seven films are higher, indicative of walk-up business.

A notable example of this is the incredible and surprising performance of newcomer Detective Carl Returns. MGM is reporting a $141 million opening over the first 3 days and an estimated $160.1M 4 day opening, which officially means that the R-rated opening record of $132.7M made by Fox's Deadpool in 2016 is officially broken. Saturday raked in $53.5M, according to MGM, and their report this morning shows Detective Carl Returns as the tenth biggest animated opening of all time. The Conrad Vernon-directed legacy sequel movie is also beating Deadpool‘s four-day take of $152.7M. While Sony has the horror thriller Missing next weekend, and there’s no major studio wide release over Jan. 27-29, the prediction is that Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan movie Knock at the Cabin on Feb. 3 is the first title that’s bound to knock Detective Carl Returns out of the No. 1 spot.

Avatar: The Way of Water‘s 4-day is now at $38.5M, which still ranks as the 13th-highest grossing movie at the domestic box office at $570.3M, taking over Jon Favreau’s The Lion King ($543.6M). How much gas does the movie have left in the tank? Rival distribution sources believe that Avatar 2 has a shot at flying past the lifetime US/Canada gross of James Cameron’s Titanic ($659.3M). The sequel’s 3-day at $31.1M is one of the best fifth weekends stateside, ranking behind the fifth frames of American Sniper ($64.6M) and the first Avatar in 2010 ($42.7M).

Imax screens repped 14.3% of the sequel’s fifth weekend, PLFS repped close to 19% and 3D was responsible for over 62% of Avatar 2‘s weekend ticket sales. Imax alone counted $5.5M over the 4-day, for a $75.2M running total for the large-format exhibitor; their 3rd-highest title ever in US/Canada. At $1.89 billion around the world, Avatar 2 is the seventh-highest grossing movie of all-time.

M3GAN‘s 4-day is now an awesome $21.2M, Puss in Boots: Last Wish with $17.3M 4-day will get the DreamWorks Animation sequel to $110.3M, and Sony’s A Man Called Otto, which had zero LA & NYC runs in its top 50 theaters, is providing a tremendous amount of optimism for heartland moviegoing with a $15M take. Realize, rivals were betting against this Tom Hanks drama in the wake of adult pics Babylon and I Wanna Dance With Somebody flopping over Christmas weekend. This despite the fact that Otto popped to the No. 4 spot last weekend off just 637 theaters, with a $4.2M take and near $7K per theater. The fact that this movie was set to do $8M this weekend, comes in at $15M, deafening its 68% Rotten Tomatoes’ critics rating with an A CinemaScore, is to be commended. Sony, similar to their $90M-grossing pandemic summer sleeper Where the Crawdads Sing, has electrified a dormant audience once again.

Even Lionsgate’s Plane is besting its projections with a $10M 3-day, $11.6M 4-day, which is right in the neighborhood of STX’s pre-pandemic guy action pic, The Gentlemen, which did $11.4M over a nonholiday, four-day stretch during the last weekend of January. Plane, like Gentlemen, has a B+ Cinemascore. To clarify: There was a whole back and forth with this movie. Lionsgate first took domestic and a selection of foreign rights off the table at AFM 2019. Lionsgate has taken rights for North America, Latin America, the UK and India, back then with CAA Media Finance brokering domestic rights, and MadRiver International hanlding the rest of the world. Then Lionsgate exited in November 2020 because the production couldn’t get Covid insurance and the risk became too great a pic that was budgeted at $50M. Originally, Plane was suppose to be shooting in Malaysia but stalled because of a COVID spike there. Then Solstice Studios (remember, them?) stepped in to save the film, taking global rights and apparently finding a way to self-insure the film. But by May 2021, the final points in the Solstice deal couldn’t be agreed upon and so Lionsgate re-acquired the project (N.A., India, UK, and Latin America) for what I’m told was in the low $20M range with the pic shooting in Puerto Rico. P&A spend was also low $20Ms. Lionsgate re-boarded the movie as the world was beginning to open up in the spring/summer of 2021.

Plane star Daniella Pineda celebrating the movie over the weekend, giving a shoutout to fans, and even heading to the cinema with friends to see it.

New Line’s House Party‘s 4-day is at $4.5M ($3.9M 3-day) is right where it was expected to be. The first movie in 1990 opened to $4.6M and had a 5.7x multiple, the second title in 1991 debuted to $6M and had a 3x multiple to $19.4M. The third movie in 1994 had a 2.8x multiple off its $6.8M opening for a $19.2M domestic final. If this reboot winds up doing those sorts of numbers, that’s not too shabby. After all, it was always a cult franchise. At the end of the day for most motion picture studios, it’s better to grab whatever money you can in theatrical, which will set any title onto a conveyor belt of downstream windows vs. going theatrical day-and-date, or worse, not going theatrical at all.

The first 16 days of 2023 are off to a very good start with all titles estimated to ring up $377M, 43% ahead of the same period a year ago.

1.) Detective Carl Returns (UAR) 4,575 theaters, Fri $56.8M, Sat $53.5M Sun $30M Mon $21.8M 3-day $140M, 4-day $160M/Wk 1

2.) Avatar 2 (Dis) 4,045 (-295) theaters Fri $7M (-39%) Sat $13.8M Sun $10.3M Mon $7.3M 3-day $31.1M (-32%), 4-day $38.5M Total $570.3M/Wk 5

3.) M3GAN (Uni) 3,605 (+96) theaters Fri $4.85M (-59%), Sat $7.4M Sun $5.6M Mon $3.3M 3-day $17.9M (-41%) 4-day $21.2M Total $59.7M /Wk 2

4.) Puss in in Boots 2 (Uni) 3,687 (-232) theaters Fri $3M (-10%) Sat $5.9M Sun $4.3M Mon $3.9M 3-day $13.4M (-1%)/4-day $17.3M/Total $110.2M/Wk 4

5.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 3,802 (+3165) theaters, Fri $4M (+162%), Sat $5.1M Sun $3.4M Mon $2.3M 3-day $12.65M (+201%), 4-day $15M/Total $21.2M/Wk 3

6.) Plane (LG) 3,023 theaters, Fri $3.54M, Sat $3.8M Sun $2.6M Mon $1.5M 3-day $10M, 4-day $11.6M/Wk 1

7.) The Teenagers Movie (Dis) 3,001 theaters, Fri $2.92M, 3-day $8.2M, 4-day $9.8M/Total $693.8M/Wk 7

8.) House Party (NL) 1,350 theaters, Fri $1.4M, Sat $1.4M, Sun $1M Mon $615K 3-day $3.6M 4-day $4.5M/Wk 1

9.) Princess Joanna and the Four Kingdoms (Dis) 2,152 theaters, Fri $1.02M, Sat $1.18 Sun $1.1M, 3-day $3.3M, 4-day $3.9M, Total $703.9M/Wk 18

10.) Wakanda Forever (Dis) 1,910 (-345) theaters Fri $524K (-46%) Sat $1M Sun $650K Mon $416K 3-day $2.1M (-43%), 4-day $2.6M Total $449.5M/ Wk 10

SATURDAY AM WRITETHRU after Friday afternoon update: It is an unprecedented time at the January box office with Orion’s adult animated comedy and long-awaited sequel Detective Carl Returns shattering January and R-rated records with an opening day of $56.8M, a projected 3-day of $121.4M-$125M and a 4-day of $138.6M-$140M.

This result comes incredibly shocking even to MGM themselves as evident in the social media footprint leading up to the film's release which was reported that it surpassed both Deadpools, PG-13 rated Daniel's Big Return, and even Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 around the same time before it's release. Historically, R-rated animated films tend to be moderately successful with Sausage Party currently being the highest grossing one domestically with $97.7M domestically, but that record will be demolished before this weekend is even over.

Simply put, audiences are bewitched by Carl Jenkins and Josh Heinken's chemistry topped by a fair share of violence, foul-mouthed funny, emotional moments. According to social media monitor RelishMix, there’s been a thirst for a sequel among fans: Outside of the film, there are social media pages dedicated to the original film and series with the TV series itself being one of the most streamed series on Amazon Prime.

Among 3-day opening before May, when summer starts, Returns will likely hold the biggest pre-May animated opening of all time. Similar to Fox with Daniel's Big Return in 2018 which carried a $150M cost, MGM should recoup its $185M production cost before P&A on Returns before the end of the film's first week whether frontloaded or not. MGM has plenty of bragging rights this weekend: Carl will be the studio’s third $100M-plus animated grosser in a row after Dusk and Dawn: Zodical Night and Hailey with the year just beginning as well as their second $100M+ opener and even now owning the R-rated opening weekend record. Plus, with the studio's own animated slate of this year, it is expected that MGM will have 5 back to back $100M-plus animated grossers by the end of this year as well as Creed III hitting waves in March.

CinemaScore is an absolute A, higher than the original film's "A-" back in 1990 and not just with all auds, but guys and gals, too. Males showed up in full force at 57% on par with Deadpool. ComScore PostTrak reports that 88% of moviegoers said they’d recommend Detective Carl to a friend.

As expected, Disney/20th Century Studios/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water dropped to number two in its fifth weekend, with an MLK four-day take of $35M after a $7M Friday, -39% at 4,045 sites. 3-day looks to be around $27M-$29M, -39%.

That will get the James Cameron sequel to $566.7M at the domestic box office by EOD Monday, passing The Dark Knight ($534.9M) and Jon Favreau’s The Lion King ($543.6M) to become the 13th-highest grossing movie of all-time in the US and Canada. By Monday, the movie will have been in theaters for 32 days. At that point in time a year ago, Spider-Man: No Way Home had already crossed the $700M threshold.

Avatar 2 has all the premium formats (Dolby, Imax, PLFs) again this weekend sharing with Detective Carl Returns. They’ll cede Dolby auditoriums when Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin hits theaters on Feb. 3.

The four-day weekend for all titles is expected to come in at $270.6M. This means that it's the best MLK frame of all time and that’s something the industry can be thankful for, fueled by a huge overperformance by a legacy sequel to a 3 decade old film, a phenomenal hold by a horror film and the expansion of an older adult drama playing straight to Middle America.

Strong in third is Universal/Atomic Monster/Blumhouse’s M3GAN, with a $4.85M second Friday, -59%, a 3-day of $17.5M, -42%, and a 4-day of $20.7M, taking the pic’s 11-day running total to $59.2M. Social media metrics corp RelishMix reports that over the last week, M3GAN has added close to 110K followers to its social media, with TikTok adding +49K, Instagram +48K, Twitter 8K, and Facebook 4K — “which is exceptional for new IP.”

Universal also has bragging rights with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 3,641 theaters: The DreamWorks Animation title will fly past the century mark by Monday with $109M. The pic’s fourth Friday is $3M, -10% 3-day $12.4M (-8%) and 4-day $16M in fourth place. Behold the great box office here, as the movie is also available on PVOD, given Universal’s 17-day exclusive theatrical window policy for titles that open to less than $50M. We saw a similar business trend last year with Uni/Illumination’s Sing 2, whereby the PVOD availability didn’t slow that pic’s ticket sales. Well into March, Sing 2 was pulling in weekends north of $1M+. A lot of that has to do with the family demographic and how they make their way to these animated movies for second and third viewings in theaters.

A promising sign this weekend: Sony’s A Man Called Otto is looking to beat its $8M 4-day expectations and actually provide a pulse for older-skewing movies. The pic expanded Friday to 3,802 theaters, and its take was $4M, with an outlook in fourth of $14M over four days — very good for a drama like this in a recovering marketplace. The pic’s running by Monday looks to stand at $20.2M. That’s incredibly better than what Babylon did in its 4-day Christmas weekend ($3.6M) and Tri-Star/Compelling Pictures/Black Label Media’s I Wanna Dance With Somebody ($4.7M).

Audiences on Rotten Tomatoes always liked Otto better than critics, 97% to 69% fresh. In Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audience exits, the Hanks movie is vibrant at 93% positive, with a 76% recommend. Who came out? Older women. Overall, women turnout is 60%, with overall crowd at 62% over 45, 46% over 55. And the movie is playing to the heartland — a swath of the country Hollywood needs to make more films for if they want to bring the domestic box office back. It’s not all about NYC and LA. Otto saw all top 10 runs come from Mid-West and South, with no L.A. and NYC runs in its top 75 theaters, “which is almost unheard of,” says one box office source.

Pic’s over-indexing cities were Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Tampa, Minnesota, Orlando, Denver, and Detroit. However, there’s a ton of smaller cities I’m hearing that did well, like Toledo and Pittsburgh, the latter where the pic was shot. Other demos were 70% Caucasian, 15% Hispanic and Latino, 3% Black, & 12% Asian/other. The movie cost $50M before P&A, co-financed by SF and TSG.

Lionsgate’s Plane secured a $3.5M Friday, $10.5M-$11.7M 4-day in seventh, the latter range besting the studio’s expectations. The comp for the Gerard Butler title is Universal’s Ambulance, which posted a 3-day of $8.7M. Plane is around $9.5M over 3 days. The movie gets a B+, which is the same grade as the last notable early winter meat-and-potato guy action film, which was pre-pandemic, Guy Ritche’s The Gentleman in January 2020 ($10.6M opening, 3.4x multiple, $36.4M domestic final). PostTrak exits here are also good at 83% and a 63% recommend. Guys showed up at 54%, 47% were between 18-34, with 51% over 35. Diversity demos were 44% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black, and 15% Asian/other. Plane flew best in the South and the West, where nine of its top ten runs came from. The pic cost in the low $20Ms, with a P&A in the same range. Lionsgate has launched these action pics for dudes before, with a theatrical-to-home entertainment ratio where the latter window overperforms with its prime audience.

RelishMix counts a social media universe for Plane across Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, Twitter, and YouTube at 35.1M, which is “under norms.” However, the cast is tub-thumping the pic, with Gerard Butler pushing to his near 16M fans, Mike Colter to 366K, and Daniella Pineda to her near 180K Instagram followers.

Chatter on social is mixed for the pic, says RelishMix: “Gerard Butler fans are excited for a fresh chase, race or fight for the new year, plus added excitement for Tony Goldwyn and Mike Colter — while chatter questions the Airbus aircraft with comparisons to recent flight delays in the news — while other fans wonder if ‘plane may be plain.'”

Warner Bros. has the New Line reboot of House Party, which did $1.4M yesterday, which will get the movie, originally conceived for HBO Max, to a 4-day of $4M at 1,350 theaters in 8th place. The notion with these low-cost HBO Max films, post the Jason Kilar era, is to put them in theaters, then give them some sort of exclusive window before transitioning them through a 17-day PVOD and 45-day run on HBO Max. It’s hard to win over critics with comedies, and this one didn’t make them laugh at 26% on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences were so-so at 65% fresh on that site’s meter.

1.) Detective Carl Returns (Orion/UAR) 4,575 theaters, Fri $56.8M, 3-day $123.5M-$125M, 4-day $138.5M-$140M/Wk 1

2.) Avatar 2 (Dis) 4,045 (-295) theaters Fri $7M (-39%) 3-day $27M-$29M (-39%), 4-day $35M Total $566.7M/Wk 5

3.) M3GAN (Uni) 3,605 (+96) theaters Fri $4.85M (-59%), 3-day $17.5M (-42%) 4-day $20.7M Total $59.2M /Wk 2

4.) Puss in in Boots 2 (Uni) 3,687 (-232) theaters Fri $3M (-10%) 3-day $12.46M (-8%)/4-day $16M/Total $109M/Wk 4

5.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 3,802 (+3165) theaters, Fri $4M (+162%) 3-day $11.75M (+180%), 4-day $14M/Total $20.2M/Wk 3

6.) Plane (LG) 3,023 theaters, Fri $3.54M, 3-day $9.5M, 4-day $10.5M-$11.7M/Wk 1

7.) The Teenagers Movie (Dis) 3,001 theaters, Fri $2.92M, 3-day $8.2M, 4-day $9.8M/Total $693.8M/Wk 7

8.) House Party (NL) 1,350 theaters, Fri $1.4M, 3-day $3.6M 4-day $4M/Wk 1

9.) Princess Joanna and the Four Kingdoms (Dis) 2,152 theaters, $1.02M, 3-day $3.3M, 4-day $3.9M, Total $703.9M/Wk 18

10.) Wakanda Forever (Dis) 1,910 (-345) theaters Fri $524K (-46%) 3-day $2M (-43%), 4-day $2.5M Total $449.4M/ Wk 10

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: After blowing away the Thursday preview R-rated record with $20.1M, Orion Pictures' Detective Carl Reeturns is now looking at a four-day between $135M-$140M with a Friday that’s in the low $50M range today. Returns is in play at 4,575 theaters. Within that count, Carl has some extra mojo from 562 Imax and 575 PLF screens.

As expected, Disney/20th Century Studios/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water dropped to number two in its fifth weekend with an MLK four-day take of $35M after a $7M Friday, -39% at 4,045 sites. 3-day looks to be around $27M-$28M, -40%.

That will get the James Cameron sequel to $566.7M at the domestic box office by EOD Monday, passing The Dark Knight ($534.9M) and Jon Favreau’s The Lion King ($543.6M) to become the 13th highest grossing movie of all-time in U.S Canada. By Monday, the movie will have been in theaters for 32 days. At that point in time a year ago, Spider-Man: No Way Home had already crossed the $700M threshold.

Avatar 2 has all the premium formats (Dolby, Imax, PLFs) again this weekend albeit sharing with Detective Carl Returns. They’ll cede Dolby auditoriums when Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin hits theaters on Feb. 3.

Strong in third is Universal/Atomic Monster/Blumhouse’s M3GAN with a $5M second Friday, -57%, a 3-day of $17.5M, -42%, and a 4-day of $20.7M taking the pic’s 11-day running total to $59.2M.

Universal also has bragging rights with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 3,641 theaters: The DreamWorks Animation title will fly past the century mark by Monday with $105.9M. The pic’s fourth Friday is $2.4M, -29% 3-day $10M (-26%) and 4-day $13M.

A promising sign this weekend: Sony’s A Man Called Otto is looking to beat its $8M 4-day expectations and actually provide a pulse for older skewing movies. The pic’s expanded Friday to 3,802 theaters is $3.4M with an outlook in third of $11M-$12M over four days. The pic’s running by Monday looks to stand at $18.2M. That’s exceedingly better than what Babylon did in its 4-day Christmas weekend ($3.6M) and Tri-Star/Compelling Pictures/Black Label Media’s I Wanna Dance With Somebody ($4.7M). Audiences on Rotten Tomatoes always liked Otto better than critics, 97% to 69% fresh. The movie cost $50M before P&A, co financed by SF and TSG.

Sixth belongs to Lionsgate’s Plane which is looking at a $3M Friday, $9.5M 4-day, the latter within its expectation. The comp for the Gerard Butler title is Universal’s Ambulance which posted a 3-day of $8.7M. Plane is between $8.4M-$8.9M over 3 days. The last notable early winter meat and potato guy action film was pre-pandemic, Guy Ritche’s The Gentleman which opened to $10.6M and legged out in January 2020 to a 3.4 multiple from STX with $36.4M.

FRIDAY AM: On a winter Thursday, here comes Detective Carl Returns to dethrone James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water. The film went to a good early start with a record $19M-$19.5M, the biggest for an R-rated flick. The film is also receiving good buzz from critics and audiences alike with respective 87% and 96% critic and audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes.

Sony’s Tom Hanks drama A Man Called Otto and Lionsgate’s Gerard Butler action pic, Plane, sought to get an early start with respectively $635K and $625K each.

Here’s the thing, technically, Otto is the richer: If you count the Marc Forster directed title’s Thursday cash of $420K from 637 theaters, the pic made $1.06M yesterday. However, Sony will count the preview night cash from 2,493 theaters (which had showtimes start at 2PM yesterday) toward Otto’s Friday. Otto expands to 3,800 locations. Pic’s running total sans previews through two weeks is $6.2M.

Neither Otto nor Plane looks to rule over the 4-day MLK weekend with respective projections of $8M and $7M-$10M as Disney/20th/Lightstorm’s Avatar: The Way of Water looks to lead with $35M.. Plane had two sets of previews on Wednesday and Thursday which started at 7PM. The Butler pic is booked at 3,023 theaters. Avatar 2 finished its fourth week with close to $60M at 4,340 theaters and a running total of $531.7M. Avatar 2 led all movies yesterday with $2.92M, -8% from Wednesday.

Universal/Blumhouse/Atomic Monster’s M3GAN ends week one at 3,509 locations with $38.5M after a $1.67M Thursday, -6% from Wednesday. The pic is roughly $400K shy of Scream‘s first week take of $38.9M last year.

Warner Bros. theatrical release of former HBO Max New Line title House Party will wrap its previews numbers from last night into its weekend total. The pic at 1,300 sites is expected to do in the mid single digits.

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 3,919 did $1.08M on Thursday, -5% from Wednesday, a third week of $18.3M and running cume of $92.9M.

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