Long Range Box Office Forecast: Ico II, Magic Mike’s Last Dance and Titanic‘s 25th Anniversary

Forecasts & Tracking • Shawn Robbins • January 13 2023

This week’s report takes an early glance at February’s second frame, now also known as Super Bowl weekend. Sony, Warner Bros. and Paramount are all smartly counter-programming the sporting event.

Ico

Sony & Columbia Pictures / Sony Pictures Animation

February 10, 2023

PROS:


 * The original film came up to be a surprise hit at box office, making over $389 million domestically during the Thanksgiving holiday frame back in 2019 while going against Frozen II.


 * Being the first four-quadrant live-action event film of the year, it is expected to bring in all family audiences.


 * Early tracking for the film have it on par with Captain America: Civil War but slightly behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness as well as awareness being sky-high.


 * The star power of Finn Wolfhard and Millie Bobby Brown has grown over the past few years thanks to their appearances in the Netflix series Stranger Things

CONS:


 * This time around being released during a regular weekend rather than a long weekend, the film will have to rely on good word of mouth.


 * The rumored darker tone of the film could hurt repeat viewings of the film for family audiences.


 * Legs for the film may not be as strong as the first due to the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania which will likely overlap audience wise.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance

Warner Bros. Pictures

February 10, 2023

PROS:


 * Channing Tatum’s reliability as a box office draw was on display early in 2022 via the success of Dog and The Lost City, even at a time when adult women remained cautious to return to cinemas coming out of the winter Omicron variant wave.


 * Early tracking trends are encouraging with trailer views and social sentiment highlighting excitement for a trilogy-capper, Tatum’s return, and the addition of Salma Hayek in a lead role.


 * The Magic Mike franchise has been among Tatum’s career box office highlights, drawing more than $179 million domestically ($286 million globally) between the 2012 and 2015 films combined.


 * Even with a depressed Sunday market due to the Super Bowl, female-driven films often evade some of the sharper box office dips at this time on the calendar. Especially with Valentine’s Day landing the following Tuesday, Last Dance is a strong “women’s night out” candidate.

CONS:


 * Nearly eight years have passed since the previous Magic Mike entry, a sequel that dipped 42 percent from its predecessor’s domestic run. Natural diminishing returns combined with some vaporization of zeitgeist status for the brand wouldn’t be surprising to see.

Titanic (25th Anniversary)

Paramount Pictures

February 10, 2023

PROS:


 * It goes without saying that one of the most beloved and successful films in history will draw some appeal in another theatrical re-issue, this time remastered in 4K and also timed for Valentine’s Day.


 * The 2012 re-release spotted $57.9 million domestically, 77 percent of which was earned through its first two weekends.


 * Again, strong appeal to women of various ages is the countermove against the big game on Sunday. Preliminary models are comparable to Disney and James Cameron’s re-release of Avatar last September.

CONS:


 * It remains to be seen how extensive the re-issue’s premium screen footprint will be since Cameron’s current blockbuster, Avatar: The Way of Water, will still be legging out in early February. Moreover, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will soak up the market air in Titanic‘s second frame.


 * Initial marketing has only just begun, so forecasting models are in some state of flux until Paramount’s release strategy is more clearly defined.


 * Audience crossover with Magic Mike’s Last Dance could be a factor to watch for.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar

(as of 1/13/23) ''Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.''

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

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