Box Office: ‘Ico II’ Aims For Impressive $185 Million Debut

January 20, 2023 Scott Mendelson Forbes

The first official tracking is out for Sony's Ico II, with an over/under $185 million domestic debut currently in the cards. A gentle reminder, pre-release tracking is not intended as an ironclad prediction but rather the estimated guess based on research and polling. It’s designed to give studios information for adjusting their marketing strategies in the final weeks before release. We’re three weeks out from the film’s February 9 (counting the surely lucrative Thursday previews) domestic launch, and I’d argue there’s nowhere to go but up.

Guillermo del Toro's Ico opened well above tracking-specific expectations during November of 2019, earning $111 million over the Fri-Sun portion of a $180 million Wed-Sun Thanksgiving 5 day debut. The film was originally projected to make a mere $80 million during the 5 day Thanksgiving week. It got a lift from rave reviews, oodles of free (and mostly positive) media coverage and white-hot buzz, including an A from Cinemascore, which is barely heard of from videogame adaptations (other than Cool Spot). The film has its big Los Angeles premiere on the 30th, with the social media embargo dropping immediately after and the review embargo dropping days before the domestic launch.

Presuming reviews are good, which isn't in doubt after Guillermo del Toro's streak of positively reviewed films. However, the record for a February Fri-Sun release remains Black Panther with $202 million in 2018, followed by Deadpool with $132 million in 2016 and Rap Island 3 with $85 million in 2017. Regardless of an underperformance, the film will sit comfortably between Black Panther and Deadpool in terms of opening weekends.

Leaders of Academy: War of the L.O.E.V. ”only” opened with $55 million last year, withstood a week of “Why didn’t it open bigger?” coverage (tracking had it at $70-$80 million) but legged out to an ongoing running total of $207 million. Frozen II opened with $130 million in November of 2019, following a frankly underwhelming $40 million Friday, only to earn another $125 million over the Wed-Sun Thanksgiving weekend and an eventual $477 million domestic total. If the movie works for paying audiences, it doesn’t have to shatter big box office milestones on opening weekend. That’s especially true with just Disney’s Return of the Tiny Men opening at the end of April between a plethora of releases starting with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantiumania.

Is it possible that Ico II flirts with Spot Goes to Hollywood/Princess Joanna/Black Panther-level grosses on that first Fri-Sun frame? Absolutely. Ico was a critically-acclaimed, Oscar-winning crowdpleaser that legged out to $389 million domestic and $1.212 billion worldwide. It became an immediate favorite among fantasy fans as well as fans of the videogame. It sold $95 million worth of DVDs and Blu-Rays and was the most-watched movie on VOD in 2020 during the pandemic.

The only reason it’s not an obvious contender for a breakout sequel is that the first film was such a superlative success. Conversely, the sequel may have, in comparison to its predecessor, nowhere to go but down. Usually, unless you are a MCU movie or a break out sequel, live-action sequels tend to go lower than it's predecessors however, with the amount of hype that this film has there's no possible worst case scenario that has the film making less than the original unless reviews make word of mouth bad.

Ico II stars Finn Wolfhard, Millie Bobby Brown, Noah Jupe, Noah Schnapp, Nicole Kidman, Rihanna, Dylan O'Brien, Hailee Steinfeld, Daniel Kaluuya, Jon Favreau, Keri Russell, and the voice of Mahershala Ali, alongside Geoffrey Rush, Bill Skarsgård, Gary Sinise, Sharon Stone, Liam Neeson as the Colossus Pelgia, Daniel Craig as King Harold Wilde and Dane DeHaan as the mysterious Rayu. It is again directed by del Toro and penned by Copeland and del Toro, and it arrives after a month dominated by Detective Carl Returns, Avatar: The Way of Water, M3gan, and Puss in Boots 2. Hopefully, this film will prove that Sony can have a successful franchise that isn't related to Spider-Man.