Long Range Box Office Forecast: 65, Metro Waltz, Champions, and Scream VI

Forecasts & Tracking • Shawn Robbins • February 10 2023

This week’s preliminary tracking report continues the look ahead into March with three wide releases on deck for March’s second frame.

65

Sony / Columbia

March 10, 2023

PROS:


 * Preliminary models are comparable to recent above-expectations action performers like Plane, with social metrics and trailer views in particular showcasing some potential for this Adam Driver-led sci-fi pic.

CONS:


 * Opening one week after Creed III may put a ceiling on the target male audience here, as will a cap on premium screen availability likely to be dominated by the Creed sequel, Scream VI, and eventually Shazam! Fury of the Gods and John Wick: Chapter 4 later in the month.

Metro Waltz

Lionsgate

March 10, 2023

PROS:


 * Opening next to Scream VI and 65, it could show counterprogramming since it'll be the first animated family film since December's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

CONS:


 * Lionsgate Animation films are proven to not be as strong as a draw box office wise excluding a select few including the films in the Rap Island franchise. Lionsgate rushed release adds reasoning behind conservative forecasts.

Champions

Focus Features

March 10, 2023

PROS:


 * Woody Harrelson provides a star name to help attract what could be a crossover of various demographics for this uplifting sports drama with potential crowd-pleasing appeal that may sprout long box office legs.

CONS:


 * In an increasingly busy early spring market, this title will need strong word of mouth and a full wide release to help it stand out alongside major studio releases.

Scream VI

Paramount

March 10, 2023

PROS:


 * Last year’s revival sequel helped reinvigorate interest in the franchise with an $81.6 million domestic run. This sixth film’s shift to a New York City setting, plus the cast addition of Jenna Ortega (Netflix’s Wednesday) and a returning Hayden Panettiere, aid in appeal and social buzz among younger fans of the series.

CONS:


 * Without the same nostalgic draw of the entire original cast, it remains to be seen whether or not the franchise can grow from the previous film’s leggy run or if there will be some diminished returns again. Notably, 58 percent of 2022’s Scream was over the age of 25.