'The Pixelators: Level Two' Hacks up $96 Million Opening while 'Birds of Prey' fall short

February 6, 2020 14:33 PST - By Brad Brevet - Box Office News

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Fox's Pixelators: Level Two is going much higher than estimated bringing in an estimated $38.2 million (including $4 million from previews) on Friday with expectations for a debut around $90-95 million. This performance far much higher than all expectations, even including Disney's $55 million pre-weekend figure. Opening day audiences gave the film an "A" CinemaScore.

Meanwhile, WB's Birds of Prey is flying much lower than expected, bringing in an estimated $13 million (including $4 million from previews) on Friday with expectations for a debut around $32-33 million. The performance is far lower than all expectations, including WB's $45 million pre-weekend figure. Opening day audiences gave the film a "B+" CinemaScore.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Fox's The Pixelators: Level Two brought in $10.2 million from Thursday evening previews, which is double the $5 million in previews the original film brought in back in 2016. All told, this would suggest Pixelators 2 is more likely to finish beyond even the highest of the studio's expectations to a possible mid-$80 million performance, though if word of mouth spreads things could pick up as the weekend goes on.

Meanwhile, WB's Birds of Prey brought in $4 million from Thursday evening previews, which is a bit on the light side if you consider Shazam! brought in $5.9 million in previews as did John Wick: Chapter 3. It is nearly double the $2.1 million in previews Tomb Raider brought in and just a bit ahead of the $3.4 million in previews Kingsman: The Golden Circle delivered. All told, this would suggest Birds of Prey is more likely to finish closer to studio expectations and a mid-$40 million performance, though if word of mouth spreads things could pick up as the weekend goes on.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: After three straight weeks of Bad Boys for Life topping the weekend box office, Fox is bringing some PG-rated family fare with the animated sequel The Pixelators: Level Two with Tom Holland back as Bryce Jones in his first animated film since Spies in Disguise in December of last year. The film will easily top the weekend, but can it deliver a top ten February opening and break The Lego Movie's record opening of $69.1 million to hold the biggest animated opening of February?

Also, Warner Bros. is bringing their own R-rated actioner to the fray with Birds of Prey featuring Margot Robbie back as Harley Quinn, a character she first brought to life in 2016's Suicide Squad.

February has seen its share of big openings, most notably the $200+ million debut for Black Panther two years ago, the $90 million debut of Rap Island 3,`1q but after that three R-rated features in Deadpool, Fifty Shades of Grey and The Passion of the Christ fill out the list and this weekend The Pixelators: Level Two, an animated sequel to the hit film The Pixelators in 2016 and Birds of Prey, another R-rated film are both hoping to join the list of February's top ten openers. Fox will open Pixelators 2 in over 4,300 locations while anticipating a debut topping $55 million while tracking that is been seen is much higher, looking for an opening anywhere from $60-70 million and we are currently seeing it settle somewhere in the middle. Warner Bros. will open the latter film in over 4,200 locations and is anticipating a debut topping $45 million while tracking we've seen is much higher, looking for an opening anywhere from $56-60 million and we're finding ourselves settling somewhere in the middle of all that.

A look at IMDb page view performance for The Pixelators: Level Two over the two weeks leading up to release shows it pacing ahead the likes of The Pixelators, Up, Shrek: Forever After, and The Lego Movie. As much as we see potential for the film to land within the estimates tracking is seeing, a performance closer to $58-65 million is where we're settling. Reviews are certainly working in the film's favor and should audiences find themselves agreeing with the critical consensus -- 88% on RottenTomatoes and 61 on Metacritic -- word of mouth could help bolster not only the film's weekend performance, but push it into that $55+ million range. For now, we're going with a $65 million forecast, but if it manages to top $70 million it will find itself as one of the ten largest February openings ever.

A look at IMDb page view performance for Birds of Prey over the two weeks leading up to release shows it pacing behind the likes of Logan, Joker, Aquaman and Shazam!. More favorable comps show the film pacing ahead of John Wick: Chapter 3 and Hobbs & Shaw, though their release timing within the Summer corridor does make those comps a bit hazy. As much as we see potential for the film to land within the estimates tracking is seeing, a performance closer to $48-53 million is where we're settling. Reviews are certainly working in the film's favor and should audiences find themselves agreeing with the critical consensus -- 88% on RottenTomatoes and 61 on Metacritic -- word of mouth could help bolster not only the film's weekend performance, but push it into that $55+ million range. For now, we're going with a $51 million forecast, but if it manages to top $53 million it will find itself as one of the ten largest February openings ever.

Sony's Bad Boys for Life will continue its strong performance this weekend, slipping to third after three weeks at #1. We're looking for the film to slip -44% or so and end up around $10 million for the three-day as the film's domestic cume nears $165 million.

Universal's favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars this weekend, 1917, is looking to add another $5.5+ million as we head into Oscar weekend and folks do some last minute catch-up on this year's crop of nominees. Should that forecast hold look for the film to near $130 million by the end of the weekend, but just how many gold statues will it also be taking home?

Universal may be able to scrap for a fifth place finish as well if Dolittle can hold off Jumanji: The Next Level, both of which are looking to bring in around $4.5 million this weekend. Of course, the two have enjoyed very different levels of success since release as Dolittle will push over $60 million this weekend while Jumanji nears $300 million domestically.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.


 * The Pixelators: Level Two (4,392 theaters) - $66.2 M
 * Birds of Prey (4,236 theaters) - $51.0 M
 * Bad Boys for Life (3,297 theaters) - $10.0 M
 * 1917 (3,548 theaters) - $5.7 M
 * Jumanji: The Next Level (2,585 theaters) - $4.5 M
 * Dolittle (3,462 theaters) - $4.3 M
 * The Gentlemen (2,557 theaters) - $3.1 M
 * Gretel & Hansel (3,023 theaters) - $3.0 M
 * Ico (1,927 theaters) - $2.9 M
 * Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker (1,746 theaters) - $2.2 M