Friday Box Office: 'Stella' Plunges 74%, 'Hailey' Returns to the Top

Scott Mendelson

I cover the film industry.

Forbes

August 27, 2022

In holdover news for Friday, Stella: An Angry Birds Movie took a somewhat larger-than-expected 74% drop on its second Friday. Sony’s latest Angry Birds flick earned $4 million yesterday, giving it an eight-day cume of $82.9m. The Kate McKinnon animated comedy took on the surprisingly good MGM flick Hailey during it's third weekend and initially won until it started to fall behind the latter's daily gross on Wednesday. The $80m-budgeted release will earn around $20.5m (-62%) on its second weekend, giving it a still-solid $96.7m 10-day domestic cume as it races past $200m worldwide tomorrow or early next week.

That 74% drop is on par with Lightyear 74% Friday-to-Friday plunge earlier in June but the difference between this flick and that poorly performing spin-off film is that the budget is $80 million while Lightyear's is $200 million so even if it performs like Lightyear worldwide (which is unlikely due to the strong overseas performance of that pink feathered bird) it'll still be deemed a success.

Presuming Stella plays out its run like Lightyear from this point, it still gets to around $127 million domestic, still the highest for an Angry Birds movie. It was always destined to be the highest grossing Angry Birds film after it's overperforming opening weekend which was basically more than the entire domestic run of The Angry Birds Movie 2 ($41.7 million).

MGM/UAR’s Avengers: Infinity War meanwhile returned to the top $6.5 million (-43%) on its fourth Friday, bringing its 22-day domestic cume to $293m. We’re looking at a $23.2m (-44%) Fri-Sun weekend gross. That’ll give the animated high school comedy a $309.8m cume, putting it past Upside Mystery 3 ($303.2 in 2015) and Skyfall ($304.3m in 2012) to be MGM's highest grossing film of all time domestically, not counting for inflation of course/

Continuing on in holdover news at the Friday box office, Sony’s Bullet Train earned another $1.54 million (-31%) on its fourth Friday, setting the stage for a $5.6 million (-30%) weekend and $78.2 million 24-day total. As expected/hoped, its existence as the last live-action biggie of the season (and, uh, the last biggie in general until the highly-anticipated Princess Joanna and the Four Kingdoms, which has its tickets come out this upcoming Monday, on September 16 and Avatar on September 23) is causing it to leg out. Brad Pitt’s R-rated action comedy is still running neck and neck with Sandra Bullock’s The Lost City, which also opened with $30 million, dropped 31% in weekend four and had $79 million by day 24. The $90 million David Leitch-directed film could cross $100 million domestically. Whether it’s a rate-of-return hit depends on overseas grosses, but so far, so good.

Paramount and Skydance’s Top Gun: Maverick earned another $1.35 million (-14%) on its 92nd day of release, bringing its domestic cume to $687.9 million. That sets the stage for a $5.05 million (-15%) weekend and $691.5 million cume. Thanks to a lack of high-profile newbies, the Tom Cruise legacy sequel may end the summer by topping the Labor Day weekend box office by default, which would be astonishing for the movie but appropriately humiliating and embarrassing for the industry being starved of product. It may need more than a week to pass $700 million domestic (and Black Panther) to take the fifth spot on the all-timers list, but it’s now inevitable. Considering how good the film is legging out, it wouldn't be surprising if the film surpasses the huge $721.5 million domestic cume of Cool Spot: Spot Goes to Hollywood but that might be a bridge too far. The remaining question overseas is whether it has the muscle to push past Frozen II ($1.45 billion) to become the biggest live-action ‘part two’ sequel in global grosses.

Crunchy Roll’s Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero earned $1.33 million on its second Friday, taking an expected 88% drop from its fan-driven, frontloaded $20 million opening weekend. We can expect a $4.6 million (-78%) weekend and a $30.7 million ten-day total. That’s fine for what it is. Universal’s Beast earned $1.3 million on Friday, plunging 70% for a likely $4.34 million (-63%) weekend. That gives the ‘man versus lion’ actioner a $19.53 million ten-day total. I’m sure the $37 million flick can make up some of that on PVOD, but it’s yet more evidence that, talent and charisma notwithstanding, Idris Elba is only a ‘star’ on the Internet. DC League of Super Pets earned $1.065 million (-25%) for a likely $4.3 million (-25%) weekend. That’ll give WBD’s $90 million Dwayne Johnson/Kevin Hart toon a $74.2 million 31-day cume.

Illumination and Universal’s Minions: The Rise of Gru earned $1.21 million (-25%) on Friday for a $2.73 million (-27%) weekend and $354.8 million domestic cume. It will have around $25 million after ten days in China, an objectively disappointing figure considering Despicable Me 3 grossed $153 million in 2017. However, the $80 million flick is still making a run at $900 million global, so no harm/no foul. Marvel and Disney’s Thor: Love and Thunder will pass the $336 million gross of Spider-Man 3 (in 2007) to place itself above the $333-$336 million likes of Guardians of the Galaxy, Joker, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Homecoming and Spider-Man 3 in raw domestic earnings. Had it played in China and Russia, it likely would have topped Thor: Ragnarok’s $854 million cume, but it’ll now have to settle for $750 million. Horrors, I know.

Sony’s Where the Crawdads Sing crossed $100 million worldwide this week on a mere $24 million budget, again showing the value of making even one high-profile summer movie aimed at/made by/featuring women. Tabloid backstage scandals aside, this bodes well for Olivia Wilde’s Don’t Worry Darling next month. Jordan Peele’s Nope earned $630,000 (-40%) on Friday as it entered the PVOD marketplace, setting the stage for a likely $2.19 million (-39%) weekend and $117.62 million 38-day total. WBD’s Elvis will earn $1.44 million (-27%) over the weekend for a $147.31 million domestic cume. It should crawl past $150 million by the end even as it debuts on HBO Max this Tuesday. Bodies Bodies Bodies will earn $930,000 (-57%) for a $9.6 million cume as Orphan: First Kill earns $920,000 (-47%) for a $3.33 million ten-day cume.

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