Long Range Box Office Forecast: Creed III and Metro Waltz Tracking for a Healthy March Opening Round

Forecasts & Tracking • Shawn Robbins • February 03 2023

This week’s long range tracking welcomes the addition of Creed III as the film is slated to kick off an anticipated March slate of wide theatrical releases.

Creed III

MGM

March 3, 2023

PROS:


 * Preliminary social metrics are healthy with positive sentiment marshalling around the return of Michael B. Jordan and Tessa Thompson alongside franchise newcomer Jonathan Majors, who will be fresh off the most prolific role of his young career so far in February’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.


 * Opening two weeks after the aforementioned Marvel Studios film, and two weeks before Shazam! Fury of the Gods, gives this sequel some padding to draw its core adult male audience.


 * The prior entries, Creed and Creed II, combined to generate $225.5 million domestically with near-equal runs between them ($109.8 million and $115.7 million, respectively) thanks to strong critical and commercial reception that built upon the legacy of the Rocky franchise.

CONS:


 * The absence of Sylvester Stallone’s Rocky Balboa character will likely be felt here to some extent, particularly among the older generations who turned out for the previous two films when he was featured in a major role each time.


 * Early tracking bears that expectation out with trailer imprints and social data not quite reaching the level of the most recent sequel at the same point before release, underscoring some expectation for natural diminishing returns.

Metro Waltz

Lionsgate

March 3, 2023

PROS:


 * Opening next to Creed III, it could show counterprogramming since it'll be the first animated family film since December's Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

CONS:


 * Lionsgate Animation films are proven to not be as strong as a draw box office wise excluding a select few including the films in the Rap Island franchise. Lionsgate rushed release adds reasoning behind conservative forecasts.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar

(as of 2/3/23) ''Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.''

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

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