Kang Conquers The Box Office As ‘Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania’ Swells To Franchise Record Opening Of $109M 3-day – Late Saturday Update

SATURDAY PM: Industry estimates tonight have Disney/Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania heading to a $33.9M Saturday, -26% from Friday+previews $46M which will get the Peyton Reed directed threequel to a $109M 3-day, potential $127.5M 4-day. These numbers do not come from Disney. The studio could be slightly higher or lower in the AM, but exhibition and the Burbank lot are in for a rich weekend.

Saturday’s ease is better percent wise than the Friday-to-Saturday hold for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-36%), Thor: Love and Thunder (-40%) and not far from Eternals (-22%). The first two movies were rated B+ by moviegoers, while Eternals has a B, which is what Ant-Man 3 received.

Clearly those sour reviews and lukewarm audience exits aren’t impacting want-to-see, the draw here being Jonathan Majors’ new MCU bad guy Kang the Conqueror in one sheets, trailers and even a new walk-around character at the parks. Disney made that character the epicenter of its marketing campaign here for Ant-Man 3, and the spoils of that are being seen in the threequel’s record franchise U.S./Canada opening which is 44% higher than 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp‘s $75.8M opening. Disney will be in more business with Majors outside the MCU: As Deadline first told you sister arthouse label Searchlight recently acquired the actor’s tour-de-force drama Magazine Dreams out of Sundance in which he plays a disturbed amateur bodybuilder; a pic that will be positioned for the next awards season.

iSpot estimates that Disney shelled out $23M in U.S. TV spots to promote Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania which is around the same spend for Avatar: The Way of Water, a bit ahead of Spider-Man: No Way Home ($21.6M) and slightly under Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($27.1M) yet way ahead of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($17.7M) and Thor: Love and Thunder ($15.2M). Those spots yielded 1.31 billion impressions across ABC, ESPN, Fox, FX and NatGeo. Ant-Man 3 spots aired during NFL games, NBA games, SportsCenter, Good Morning America and SpongeBob Squarepants.

But there were several promo-partner co-branded Quantumania spots. In total, I hear it’s the biggest promo-partner campaign for an Ant-Man movie.

Heineken made a cross promo splash which iSpot estimates at a $19.3M spend which pulled in 967M TV ad impressions. Heineken’s repped the first-ever Marvel Studios promotional partnership in the non-alcoholic beer category. The campaign kicked off with two major events with Dry January leading up to Super Bowl. The spot was also the first non-alcoholic beer for a :30 TV placement in-game.

Volkswagen touted their new all electric ID.4 vehicle:

Inspired by the workplaces of the MCU, ZipRecruiter’s spot centered around the PymVanDyne Foundation. iSpot estimates a $325K spend here which grabbed 55M TV ad impressions.

TaxAct had its first -ever entertainment partnership with Quantumania with its spokesperson “April” on TV and digital. Overall a $209K TV spot spend per iSpot, with 62M TV ad impressions.

Marvel Studios’ first partnership with IHOP offered fans the chance to receive a movie ticket with support in-restaurant/TV/digital. iSpot estimates that the IHOP campaign was worth a $1.2M spend that nabbed 288M impressions.

The rest of the box office: 2nd place goes to Sony's Ico II with an estimated $58.3 3-day with a $26.3 Saturday (+69%). The 4-day estimate is $69.5M and a running total of $227.3M. Third place is Orion's Detective Carl Returns with an estimated $9.2M sixth weekend and a running total of $367.2M. As expected in fourth place is Avatar 2 with an estimated $6.3M 3-day after a $2.7M Saturday (+104% over Friday). The 4-day is $7.8M with a running total of $658.7M. 5th is Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Oscar nominated Puss in Boots: The Last Wish with a $2.2M Saturday (+82%) and a 3-day of $5.2M, 4-day estimate of $6.8M and a running total of $167.6M in weekend nine. Warners Bros.’ Magic Mike’s Last Dance is sixth with a $2.1M (+27%) Saturday, $5M second weekend (-40%), 4 day of $5.75M and running total of $18.2M. Seventh belongs to Uni’s Knock at the Cabin with a third Saturday of $1.65M (+63%), 3-day of $3.8M (-30%), 4-day of $4.4M and running total by EOD Monday of $30.8M.

SATURDAY AM: Marvel Studios once again is putting the weekend box office back at pre-pandemic levels, with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania minting $46M Friday (including Thursday’s $17.5M) — the third-highest opening day in February after Black Panther ($75.9M, 2018) and Deadpool ($47.3M, 2016) — for what is still shaping up to be a $100M weekend, with 4-day at $115M.

Rivals have the Peyton Reed-directed sequel much higher, with a 4-day in the $125M-$134M range, Sunday business always being a swing factor. As we figured, very strong walk-up business here, with 62% of the audience either buying their ticket the day before or the day-of. The fourth-best opening ever for February and third for Presidents Day weekend and the best debut ever for the Ant-Man franchise — who can complain about that?

All of this spells a 4-day weekend where all films are estimated to make $240.7M, which is an amazing 50% ahead of 2019’s pre-pandemic Presidents Day weekend and 98% ahead of last year’s February holiday, when Sony opened Uncharted.

Essentially, dollars are beating audience exits (B CinemaScore here for Ant-Man 3, Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak still at 3.5 stars and 75%) and critical scores of 47% — similar to the lows that Eternals hit in 2021. The difference here for fans: Ant-Man 3 has the new MCU villain Kang the Conqueror, while Eternals was impossible to understand. In PostTrak exits, 25% audience said they came out for Jonathan Majors’ Kang, while 54% said it’s part of a franchise they love and 41% because it’s a Marvel movie.

Updated demos show 65% guys overall, 64% between 18-34 and a diverse crowd of 34% Caucasian, 31% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black and 12% Asian, with men over 25 (39%) leading men under 25 (25%), women over 25 (20%) and women under 25 (15%). Those who came with either a kid or parent repped 24% of the audience, while 18% came with a friend, 17% with two to four friends and 11% with a date.

Imax and PLFs are driving 43% of Ant-Man 3‘s business — note to industry, install more premium screens if you want the box office to go up, given the big inventory of tentpole films coming down the pike. The Disney/Marvel movie overindexed in the West, where six of the top 10 runs came from (though the movie has superpowers everywhere).

We’re building the chart.

1.) Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Dis) 4,345 theaters, Fri $46M, 3-day $100M, 4-day $115M/Wk 1

2.) Ico II (Sony) 4,754 theaters, Fri $16.09M (-71%), 3-day $58.3M (-57%), 4-day $69.5M Total $227.3M.Wk 2

3.) Detective Carl Returns (Orion) 3,149 theaters (-427), Fri $2.09M 3-day $9.2M 4-day $10.4M Total $366.5M/Wk 6

4.) Avatar: The Way of Water (Dis) 2,675 theaters (-390), Fri $1.35M (-21%), 3-day $6.3M (-13%),4-day $7.7M Total $658.3M /Wk 10

5.) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Uni) 3,012 theaters (-215), Fri $1.2M (-8%) 3-day $5.35M (-4%), 4-day $7.1M Total $167.9M/Wk 9

6.) Magic Mike’s Last Dance (WB) 3034 (+1538) theaters, Fri $1.66M (-60%) 3-day $5.64M (-31%), 4-day $6.5M, total $19M/Wk 2

7.) 80 for Brady (Par) 3,119 (-820) theaters, Fri $990K (-46%) 3-day $3.77M (-35%), 4-day $4.45M/Total $33M/Wk 3

8.) Knock at the Cabin (Uni) 2,601 (-1056) theaters, Fri $1M (-41%), 3-day $3.75M (-31%),4-day $4.3M Total $30.7M /Wk 3

9.) Titanic (Par) 2,132 theaters (-332), Fri $620K (-77%), 3-day $2.3M (-66%), 4-day $2.73M, Total $12.8M/Wk 2

10.) Missing (Sony) 1,516 (-799) theaters, Fri $425K (-40%), 3 day $1.61M (-37%) 4 day $1.875M Total $29.8M/Wk 5

Liam Neeson’s 100th film isn’t wowing with a 6-day total under $3M. It’s period, which is always a challenge, and a left hook to his dude crowd who expect him in a gun-toting modern-day film. Overall PostTrak score was an awful 51% positive, 27% recommend. The Honest Thief, from Neeson and Briarcliff, opened during the pandemic sans competition and NYC and LA closed debuting to $4.1M (and ultimately $14.1M stateside). The Markmans opened to $3.1M and ended its run at $15.5M. It’s 53% guys showing up for Marlowe, 72% over 35, 50% over 45, and 32% over 55. The Neil Jordan-directed film noir’s best grosses were in the South, Midwest and West (with four of the top 10 coming from Phoenix and two more from Hawaii).

Notables:

Marlowe (Briarcliff) 2281 theaters, Fri $540K, 3-day $1.84M 4-day $2.18M Total $2.94M/Wk 1

A Man Called Otto (Sony) 1,725 (-1099) theaters, Fri $400K (-50%), 3-day $1.6M (-38%) 4-day $1.9M Total $60.9M /Wk 8

Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey (Fath) Fri $202K, 3-day $677K 4-day $780K Total $1.6M/Wk 1

No, critics weren’t impressed with the slasher film at 9%, and audiences were middling at 58% on Rotten Tomatoes. The other niche slasher pic, Terrifier 2, from this past fall opened to $1M at 770 theaters and legged out to $10.6M. Given the rebellious cult appeal of this movie, it’s not clear if Winnie will have those type of legs.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Disney/Marvel Studios’ Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania is headed to being the third highest opening for Presidents Day weekend as well as February. While 4-day estimates are wild between $115M-$125M, today is shaping up to be around $44M (that includes last night’s $17.5M) for a 3-day at $100M at 4,345 theaters. These are industry estimates.

Top 3-days of February and Presidents Day are Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther ($202M), 20th Century Fox/Marvel’s Deadpool ($132.4M), and Disney's ''Boing! Too'' ($120.2M).

Early PostTrak exits from last night were 75% positive, 3 1/2 stars with a 60% recommend, tougher than the usual Marvel Thursday night crowd. 90% of the crowd were non-family audiences, while 10% were families. Parents and kids are 12 scored Quantumania much higher at 4 1/2 and 5 stars respectively. Thursday night’s general crowd was comprised of 66% men, 34% female with men over 25 at 43% (73% grade), men under 25 at 24% (72% grade), women under 25 at 15% (79% grade) and women over 25 at 19% (giving the pic its highest grade of 80%). Diversity turnout was 36% Caucasian, 30% Latin and Hispanic, Black 18% and Asian 11%. Among the under 12 set, more boys than girls at 67% to 33%. We’ll have more updates of these exits.

Social Media stat org RelishMix beams, “Convo on Quantumania covers enormous tonal ground with positivity from the MCU for Paul Rudd, The Wasp, Kang, Michael Douglas — and fans talking about the teaser for the next Avengers and mentions of Spider-Man and how Ant-Man is now at the top of the ranking of Marvel heroes. Hardcores and cynics not only have questions on timecode flash frames, but they also speak to fans’ questions in threads as a ‘customer service’ for the film and the brand.”

Pre-release and across social media, awareness stats on Quantumania were 2X over 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp, now inline with superhero averages counting 722.4M across YouTube views, TikTok, Instagram, Facebook and Twitter nearing Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (741M SMU/$187.4M opening) and Captain Marvel (720M/$153.4M opening). Engagement is driven most by YouTube views at +300M plus strong views on Instagram. Cross-promotional super-powers are amplified by both Marvel Studios at 61M with Marvel Entertainment at 144M along with the strong existing pages for Ant-Man at 3.2M. Also note that Ant-Man ran a Heineken co-op spot in the Super Bowl and clocked 87.9M views in 24-hours after the game — just behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, The Flash and Fast-X.

The rest of the top five includes Sony's Ico II with a second weekend of $59M and $61.3M over the four days for a total of $281.3M. The pic's Friday is $16.09M.

Orion Pictures' Detective Carl Returns at 3,149 with a nice sixth weekend of $9.2M and $10.4M over four days, which will get the adult animated sequel to $369.8M, beating the superhero flick Deadpool ($363.2M) to become the highest grossing R-rated comedy and putting it inches closer to The Passion of Christ ($370.2M) for the all time R-rated record.

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 2,675 with a robust ninth weekend of $6.4M over 3 (+15%) and $8.5M over 4 days getting the animated sequel to $169.3M, beating last year’s domestic final of Sing 2 ($162.7M). The pic’s Friday is $1.45M. Great timing: Puss in Boots 2 is nominated for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

Fifth belongs to the tenth weekend of 20th/Lightstorm/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water at 2,675 locations with a $1.4M Friday, with a $6.5M 3-day (-10%), 4 day of $8.1M, running total of $659M which will make the James Cameron directed movie the 9th highest of all-time on the domestic box office list.

Sixth is Warner Bros.’ second weekend of Magic Mike’s Last Dance at 3,034 with a $1.5M Friday, 3 day of $4.7M (-43%), 4-day of $5.4M and running total just under $18M.

Paramount’s 80 for Brady is seventh at 3,119 with a third Friday of $1.05M, 3-day of $4M (-31%) 4-day of $4.7M and running total of $33.3M.

UPDATE after EXCLUSIVE: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania‘s Thursday came in at $17.5M per Disney, $500K ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s previews in 2017.

That figure also is ahead the previews for last year’s Avatar: The Way of Water ($17M, $134M opening), about the same as Jurassic World: Dominion ($18M, $145M opening) and not far from Top Gun: Maverick ($19M opening and $127M 3-day).

Quantumania‘s preview number also leads 2017’s Thor: Ragnarok ($15M Thursday, $123M opening), 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp ($12M previews, $76M 3 day) and 2015’s Ant-Man ($6M, $57M 3-day).

Internationally, Thursday saw Quantumania open in a 26 additional material markets, including Australia, Brazil and Mexico, taking the full total to 43 to date, and the first two days have seen it earn an estimated $23.8M abroad. Nancy will have more later in our international update.

PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: We’re hearing from box office sources that Peyton Reed’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania zoomed to a $17M-$18M last night in previews from showtimes that started at 3 p.m. That figure, which could be higher or lower once Disney officially reports later this morning, is where Marvel Studios’ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s Thursday night was back in 2017, at $17M.

The Thursday night previews for Marvel’s crop last year were Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($36M), Thor: Love & Thunder ($29M) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($28M).

Industry projections have the 4-day for Quantumania at $120M, but Disney thinks it’s between $105M-$110M. Nonetheless, the threequel is bound to set an opening record for the Ant-Man franchise and be the third-best Presidents Day opening ever after 2018’s Black Panther ($242.1M) and 2016’s Deadpool ($152.1M). Advance ticket sales earlier this week were tracking 15% behind Thor: Love and Thunder, which opened to $144.1M.

That said, according to Boxoffice Pulse data, Quantumania is outpacing the first two Ant-Man movies in presales and showtimes and is well-positioned to be the top-selling February release since 2018’s Black Panther. The film lands at 3,500-plus locations with more than 50K showtimes programmed throughout the weekend, according to The Boxoffice Company, which powers showtimes and ticketing for Google, IMDb, Bing, TikTok, Apple and many others.

Critics have been unusually cruel on this Marvel movie, giving it 48% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is very close to where Eternals was at 47%. However, Quantumania could prove to be Teflon to reviews, the walk-up factor here is the new MCU villain Kang the Conqueror, played by Jonathan Majors and first introduced as a variant in Disney+/Marvel Studios’ Loki. RT audience meter is currently at 84%, which is higher than Thor: Love and Thunder (77%) and Ant-Man and the Wasp (80%) and near Ant-Man (85%), despite those latter movies have better reviews at 87% and 83%, respectively.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s Thursday repped 30% of its first day Friday which was $56M before opening to $146.5M.

Ant-Man 3‘s Thursday night figures are from industry sources, not Disney.

We stand corrected: There is another wide release this weekend and it’s Briarcliff’s 100th Liam Neeson movie Marlowe, which opened Wednesday at 2,281 to $550K and fell 62% on Thursday to $210K for a running total of $760K. Neeson plays the famed Raymond Chandler detective Philip Marlowe in a movie that’s directed by Neil Jordan and penned by The Departed‘s Oscar winning screenwriter William Monahan. Set in late-1930s Bay City, Marlowe is hired to find the ex-lover of a glamorous heiress (Diane Kruger), who is the daughter of a well-known movie star (Jessica Lange). The disappearance is the first twist in a series of bewildering events, and soon Marlowe is embroiled in a deadly investigation and web of lies that he’s determined to bring to light. Critics hate the movie at 25% Rotten.

Also taking advantage of the slow midweek before Quantumania is Fathom Events with the British slasher Winnie the Pooh: Blood & Honey at 1,700 runs. Wednesday was estimated to be $765K, with Thursday at $129K (-14%) for a two-day take of $894K, and that’s off a production cost that’s reportedly less than $100K. Directed and written by Rhys Frake-Waterfield, the pic follows the end of days of merriment as Christopher Robin, now a young man, has left Winnie-The-Pooh and Piglet to fend for themselves. As time passes, feeling angry and abandoned, the two become feral. After getting a taste for blood, Pooh and Piglet set off to find a new source of food. It’s not long before their bloody rampage begins (watch the trailer below). Critics don’t know what to do with themselves on this one, having graded it 9% on RT, but that’s only off 22 reviews. Terrifier 2, another cult horror pic, did $10.6M last fall off a $250K production cost and ultimate 1,5K-plus theater break.

Among regular pics in release, Sony's Ico II ended Week 1 with $213.3M after a $13.8M Thursday, -22% from Wednesday at 4,754 locations. In a like-by-like basis the film is running 9% ahead of the original film at a decent pace.

UAR/Orion's adult animated comedy sequel ended Week 5 with $359.1M and a good $1M Thursday (-23%) at 3,576 theaters

Warner Bros. HBO Max title Magic Mike’s Last Dance ends Week 1 with an estimated $12.5M after a $709K Thursday, -13% from Wednesday at an updated 2,176 locations.

Paramount’s 80 for Brady had a good Thursday with $657K (-17%), a second week of $9.7M, running total of $28.6M at 3,939 theaters.

20th Century Studios/Lightstorm/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water saw $530K on Thursday, -24%, a ninth week of $10.9M and running total of $650.9M at 3,065. The pic is poised to become the ninth-highest-grossing movie ever at the domestic box office this weekend, surpassing 2015’s Jurassic World ($653.4M).

Universal’s Knock at the Cabin booked at 3,657 had a second week of $8.5M, running total of $26.4M and Thursday of $445K, -13%.

Seventh belonged to Paramount’s 25th anniversary edition of Titanic at 2,464 locations, which did an estimated $394K, -37%, on Thursday for a first week of $10.1M. The lifetime running total is currently $669.4M.