Super Bowl Weekend Box Office Forecast: Ico II Hopes to Break Records while Magic Mike’s Last Dance and Titanic‘s 25th Anniversary Re-Issue Will Try to Counter the Big Game

Forecasts & Tracking • Shawn Robbins • February 08 2023

Usually not a weekend exhibitors particularly look forward to each year with the certainty of deflated Sunday box office at hand, but 2023’s Super Bowl frame is changing the game as Sony made the brave decision to release highly anticipated Ico II on the same week as the game while other studios will provide at least provide a couple of counter-programming options.

Last year’s top ten earned $50.4 million, while the pre-pandemic big game weekend drew $52.1 million four years ago. 2020’s Super Bowl weekend drew $64.6 million on the back of a strong start to the year before the pandemic took hold weeks later.

As individual releases go, first up is last week's No. 1 film which topped box office for four weekends is Detective Carl Returns, which is benefiting from the lack of competition, however it's reign at the top is sadly to end this weekend with Ico II coming out. The film's opening from the start gave a green flag on the performance and it's legs is showing that it's performing like a typical comic book movie. The movie's success from the start proved that 2023 has potential.

Last week's Knock at the Cabin, which appears likely to see it slight under-performance turn into a sharp drop as the male-driven thriller is being met with mixed audience and critic reception. The film’s opening earnings have been one of the few relative missteps of an early 2023 market that has otherwise performed up to, if not above, expectations.

To be fair, however, Cabin‘s box office hopes ballooned in part because of M. Night Shyamalan’s history when delivering crowd-pleasing films combined with the nature of genre films to over-perform in recent times. Buzz didn’t come to fruition, but ultimately, Knock had a modest $20 million budget, leaving it on course to be a financial victory for Universal even if theater owners had hoped for a little more punch.

Paramount’s 80 for Brady, however, met the high end of forecasts in its debut last week and should be able to leverage its healthy 90 percent audience score into legs with the older female-driven audience. It won’t be immune from Super Bowl impact or some crossover competition from the front-loaded new releases, but the film is at least in a position to weather the brief drop-off on Sunday.

Among new releases this weekend, three films get a jump on Valentine’s Day (next Tuesday) by providing fresh theatrical content for adult women over the sporting weekend while one is hopefully becoming the first four quadrant blockbuster of the year.

First things up is Sony's Ico II which will have no-problem coming up at the top of box office this weekend. The only problem is Super Bowl Sunday, however, a strong promotional campaign will benefit the film and hopefully open in line with our projections and even the most bullish forecasts.

At the time of publishing, sources report that Sony is releasing Ico II at a record 4,754 domestic locations. By comparison, the same studio released the franchise’s prior film, Ico to 4,652 theaters in 2019 where it opened to a record $180.3 million 5 day Thanksgiving bow and a regular $111.4 million 3 day opening weekend.

The latest tracking, social buzz, and pre-sale observations indicate some frontloading for Ico II with social buzz being double of Black Panther and more than Avengers: Age of Ultron around the same point of time of release, meaning that the Friday to weekend ratio will be less than usual due to the Super Bowl Sunday although ticket sales for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are record breaking for a February release.

Ico II begins previews on Thursday at 4pm.

Warner Bros.’ Magic Mike’s Last Dance is the slight favorite to come out to the second position this weekend, though a muted promotional and distribution strategy by the studio have softened what used to be more bullish forecasts and created some volatility in expectations.

At the time of publishing, sources report that Warner is only releasing Last Dance at close to 2,000 domestic locations. By comparison, the same studio released the franchise’s prior sequel, Magic Mike XXL, in 3,376 venues back in July 2015 when that pic opened to a $12.9 million three-day weekend after a midweek bow.

The latest tracking, social buzz, and pre-sale observations indicate some backloading for Last Dance. Despite its nature as a three-quel and the Super Bowl likely impacting late weekend attendance, Valentine’s Day and “girls night out” audience mentality could help it see a stronger preview-to-Friday ratio than might otherwise be typical for a franchise movie.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance begins previews on Thursday at 5pm.

Meanwhile, James Cameron’s Titanic gets a 25th anniversary re-issue replete with a 4K remaster and another 3D conversion. The film’s last high profile re-release back in 2012 occurred in a different era of moviegoing relative to the state of the market today, so its $17.3 million three-day Easter weekend bow probably isn’t apt for comparison.

More recently, Cameron’s Avatar went back to cinemas last September to the tune of $10.5 million in its first weekend back. That’s closer to what’s reasonably expected of Titanic this weekend, though possible still on the high end with the latter facing Super Bowl impact and not having the same widespread IMAX footprint as Avatar‘s re-issue last year.

Titanic sets sail with previews beginning at 3pm on Thursday.

Opening Weekend Ranges

Ico II

Opening Weekend Range: $190 – 205 million

Magic Mike’s Last Dance

Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

Titanic (25th Anniversary Re-Release)

Opening Weekend Range: $6 – 11 million

Weekend Forecast & Location Count Projections All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.