'Ico II' Sees Second Best February Preview, ‘Magic Mike’s Last Dance’ to Outdo 'Titanic 4K' per Bowl Weekend Box Office

Deadline Hollywood February 10, 2023

3RD UPDATE, Saturday 7:35 AM: The opening for Sony’s Ico II is now projected to be around $141.6M, below the $160M that Disney was seeing, and the more aggressive $180M-$210M industry estimates. It recieved a CinemaScore of A- last night, slightly below the "A" that the original film recieved.

Let's remember a few factors. The film is receiving positive reviews but not as stellar as the first film which could contribute to the lower than expected opening but still has great exits for a sequel. If the numbers keep up, Ico II will be the second-best opening for a February movie behind Black Panther ($202M).

Now, in regards to the ‘Wha happen?’ to Ico II, and why it’s coming in lower, analysts I’ve spoken with believe money has been left on the table here in regards to the Sony film. The film's original release date of February 3, would've had the film uninterrupted by a Super Bowl Sunday however, Sony pushed the film back to get female demos during Valentine's Day and possibly suffer a huge hit on Sunday.

While Black Panther had an 13% Saturday to Sunday dip, some are projecting a 15% one for Toy Story 4. Also, even though the Super Bowl falls on Sunday, people still go to the movies on Friday and Saturday. The reason why we saw those $180M-$210M forecasts is because some were running numbers for Ico II using Black Panther and Princess Joanna as comparisons.

Friday UPDATE: Industry estimates see Ico II at $61M today, including last night’s $16M, on its way to around $156M for the weekend. That’s fantastic number even though it’s under some of the lofty projections many were seeing, i.e. $180M-$210M (Sony had spotted the movie at $160M+).

Sony also reported the Thursday night of Ico II exactly where we saw it last night — at $16M, which makes it the second best preview night for an animated movie after Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther ($25.8M).

Channing Tatum is looking at a No.2 spot with Warner Bros’ Steven Soderbergh-directed threequel Magic Mike’s Last Dance, which industry estimates peg at between $9M-$11M at 1,500 theaters. Warner Bros is not reporting numbers. Friday is around $4.3M ,which includes an estimated $1M previews that started at 5 p.m. The pic is aimed squarely at women over Super Bowl weekend, when the box office typically takes a hit.

While this is the second title Warner Bros is pivoting from HBO Max to an exclusive theatrical release — after New Line’s House Party — there’s a lot of intrigue in regard to how far this branded movie can go in its limited release of 1,500 locations. On the low-end, the pic’s weekend opening would be higher than Marry Me ($7.9M), the Jennifer Lopez-Owen Wilson theatrical-day-and-date Universal romantic comedy from a year ago. At the high end, the threequel isn’t that far from the 3-day (of a 5-day debut) of the previous installment, Magic Mike XXL.

As we previously reported, rental terms were generous for exhibitors, at least 55% in their favor. Warners specifically curated theaters that it booked, avoiding playing two in the same zone, thus creating demand. While there’s an assumption that the movie, which cost in the high $40Ms, had a low P&A designed for a HBO Max movie, that’s not true with Warners giving the movie a solid theatrical push significantly north of $20M. Critics gave the threequel the worst reviews of the three pics at 47% on Rotten Tomatoes vs. part 2’s 65% and part one’s 78%. The current audience score on Rotten Tomatoes for Magic Mike’s Last Dance is 77%.

RelishMix reports that Magic Mike’s Last Dance has a social media universe across TikTok, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter of 100.5M followers. “The Magic Mike franchise feeds are cross-promoted on Magic Mike Live, and are approaching sub-genre norms for this musical, comedy, drama genre…Added incremental notable views on TikTok are approaching 1B, adding ~8M views per day,” says the social media stat org. Tatum is promoting the movie to his 45.5M followers and Salma Hayek Pinault to her 26.5M followers. RelishMix observed that Tatum’s YouTube channel was used for the first time in ten years to post the trailer of the threequel.

“While the convo on Magic Mike runs positive for long time fans of the cultural life-style brand of the movies, the Vegas show and the reality series, chatter is mixed in with modern day threads about health, wellness, body fat percentage mentions and Channing Tatum’s future in the brand. As well, movie goers wonder if this is actually a last dance or a tease to the next gen-of Magic Mike,” adds RelishMix.

As the movie plays out over the weekend, we’ll provide a balanced assessment.

Orion's Detective Carl Returns is sliding to a possible No. 2 or No. 3 fifth Friday with $3.9M and a fifth weekend of $11.2M for a running total of $355.2M. At the rate of decent, the film will pass Deadpool ($363M) to become the biggest R-rated comedy and The Passion of Christ ($370M) to be the highest grossing R-rated film domestically.

Paramount’s 25th anniversary re-release of James Cameron’s Titanic in 3D is looking at $2.85M today (including Friday previews) at 2,464 theaters, and a 3-day of $6.4M in third place. The Oscar-winning 1997 movie is expected at this time to rank under 20th Century Studios/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water at 3,065 theatres, which is seeing a ninth weekend of $6.5M (-42%) after a $1.6M Friday (-30%).

Fifth place goes to Paramount’s 80 for Brady which continues to sell discounted tickets. The pic ended its first week with $18.9M and is looking at a second Friday of $1.7M (-63%) at 3,939 theaters and second weekend of $5.6M (-56%) and running total by EOD Sunday of $24.5M.

Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan thriller Knock at the Cabin is seeing a second Friday of $1.5M (-72%) and second weekend of $4.6M (-67%) for a running total of $22.5M. At this time, that’s a steeper drop than the second weekend of Shyamalan’s Old (-59%, $6.8M second weekend). Knock at the Cabin ended its first week with $17.8M stateside.

THURSDAY EXCLUSIVE: Sony kicked off the year with the first offical four-quadrant film and arguably one of the most anticipated films of the year. Industry sources –not Soy– inform us that Ico II is clocking around $19M tonight, which will make it the second best preview night for a February pic after the record $25.2M notched by Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther half a decade ago.

Tonight’s estimated ticket sales for Ico II are double that of Ico 's preview night ($9.3M) back on November 26, 2019 and that was off Tuesday preview showtimes.

Ico kicked off at select 3PM fan events at 22 theaters tonight with the original film as a double feature, followed by a 6PM nationwide break. Tomorrow, Ico II will play at 4,754 theaters, the widest release ever.

Will Ico II overindex up to a $220M opening weekend or stay around the $180M range? Will the Super Bowl Sunday majorly slow it down? The original film benefitted from a 5-day Thanksgiving weekend.