Box Office: 'The Teenagers Movie' Tracking For A Record-Breaking Debut of $150 Million

Forbes November 7, 2022

Since we’re three weeks out from the domestic debut of 20th Century Studios and Warner Bros. Pictures’ The Teenagers Movie, it’s that time where we get the first bit of official pre-release tracking. As always, these figures are not ironclad predictions. Heck, they aren’t intended to be public knowledge, but they’ve been treated as news for around a decade. Tracking is supposed to be a tool for studios to adjust their marketing choices in the run-up to release or, if they like what they see, to sit back and keep doing what they’re doing. I’d argue option B for The Teenagers Movie because it’s tracking toward a possibly record-breaking opening weekend.

To wit, the official guestimate puts the opening Fri-Sun launch at $130 to $150 million, which would be the second animated film by 20th Century Studios this year to make over $100 million in its opening weekend after the record breaking $227.9m debut of Princess Joanna and the Four Kingdoms. The low end would make the Jahmir Wheeler film have the second-biggest animated TV show adaptation behind Daniel's Big Return (which, to be fair, was heavily advertised as Daniel Wyatt's comeback film) which opened with $135m in August of 2018. The upper figure would put it above The Wyatts and will become the new holder for the biggest animated TV Show adaptation opening and the second biggest for a black director behind Black Panther ($202m in 2018). For those keeping score, the biggest animated TV show adaptation openings are Daniel's Big Return ($135m), Daniel: Bigger, Meaner, and Longer ($128m), and The Simpsons Movie ($74 million).

As much as I usually warn about not letting optimistic expectations get the better of us, mostly because it can result in studios being put on the defensive for what otherwise would be rock-solid debuts, I see almost no reason not to see these figures go upward as the film inches closer to release. The premiere is next Monday November 15th, with the social media embargo dropping on the 26th and the review embargo dropping on the 29th. Unless it turns out to be inexplicable terrible (and not in a “Gee, Little Lilly was good on paper but in reality wasn't), there’s nowhere to go but up. Regardless, underperformance or not, the film's budget is $89 million, which means the film will be into the black within it's opening weekend.

The Jah'Mir Wheeler/Thom Adcox-Hernandez/Tom Kenny/Chris Rock/Christel Khalil/Jeri Lee Meylar/Sharon Hughsman/Laurence Fishburne/Gladys Knight/Big Sean/Lizzo/Bad Bunny/Beyoncé coming-of-age comedy is going to only increase its media profile. After coming soon when tickets come out!, it has little in the way of likely speedbumps. Again, unless it’s terrible or there is some out-of-left-field controversy (in case Wheeler get's canceled on social media or worse), there is little reason for anticipation not to grow between now and December 4th.

At this risk of stating the obvious, The Teenagers Movie is a generational event movie for a whole deluge of folks who have wanted a movie like this for their entire lives as well as for fans of the TV series to finally see their favorite characters on the big screen. Just like how the Daniel films as well as Cool Spot received praise as an event movie, The Teenagers Movie is an event movie not only because it's based on one of the most popular shows airing on Fox, but also because it's the first 20th Century Animation film to feature an African-American human lead.

No, I am not arguing that The Teenagers Movie is going to post Top Gun: Maverick/Furious 7 numbers worldwide, although at this point anything’s possible. What I am saying is that the movie, which looks excellent and presumably going to be a thrilling and funny comedy film (hopefully to show diversity as well as gearing more towards Teenagers (no pun intended) of a high school film after seeing UAR/MGM's Hailey in August) even for those who don’t care much about onscreen/offscreen inclusivity, is probably a pretty good bet to break a couple of reasonable records next month.

A debut above Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (especially with heavy social media presence) is possible, which would make the film earn a stop in the top 5 December opening. If it possibly gets past Incredibles 2 ($182 million), it’ll be the most massive Fri-Sun debut for an animated film only including non-fanatical human characters. And since it’s first feature film to a TV show, it'll automatically pass The Simpsons Movie ($74m in 2007), to have the biggest “first time at bat” feature film TV show Fri-Sun debut of all time.

If by some miracle it hits $193 million (not likely, but humor me), it’ll top The Lion King ($192m) and Incredibles 2 ($182m in 2018). That will give 20th Century Animation all three spots in the Top 3 biggest opening weekends (Spot Goes to Hollywood and the most recent Princess Joanna film) of all time for an animated film and if (and I mean a very unlikely but IF) the film makes $202 million and beyond in it's opening weekend, it'll surpass Black Panther ($202m) to have the biggest debut for a black director while also being the biggest first time film since it's not a sequel/prequel to an existing franchise and join Spot Goes to Hollywood and Princess Joanna to become only the third animated film to open to $200+ million as well as being the first 20th Century Animation film not made at Century City to open to $200+ million. But without getting too much into hyperbole, at this point, I think we can safely hope that The Teenagers Movie can find itself tangling with Daniel's Big Return and The Rise of Skywalker in the record books. At the very least, it will help convince Hollywood even further that animated TV show theatrical adaptations can be successful and also prove to Hollywood that animation isn't dead at the box office.